The UK Independence Party is on track to win a decisive victory in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election, polling six points ahead of its main rival, the Labour Party.
A poll conducted by Leave.eu quizzing more than 4,000 constituents in the Midlands city has found support for UKIP stands at 39 per cent, against the incumbent Labour Party’s 33 per cent. If correct, it will place UKIP’s leader Paul Nuttall in the House of Commons.
According to the poll, both the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats are trailing heavily at 11 per cent and 10 per cent respectively – the latter a significant rise from the 4.2 per cent the Lib Dems achieved at the last general election in 2015.
If the poll proves to be accurate, UKIP will have nearly doubled its voter base in the constituency, up from 22.7 per cent at the last general election, in which the party came second, while the Conservatives will have halved theirs.
“Conservative supporters seem to be breaking towards UKIP [while] Labour are losing support to both the Liberal Democrats and UKIP,” a leave.eu spokesman said in a press release.
That will give cheer to UKIP members who hope to see similar swings across the north at the next general election in 2020, handing them significant numbers of seats in the British parliament for the first time.
Turnout was predicted to be 33 per cent.
Leave.eu are confident of the results, pointing out that the only poll they have previously publicly released was on the night of the EU referendum, shortly after polls closed.
“The model predicted a 52 to 48 outcome and was within 0.2% of the final result,” they said, adding: “Similar techniques have been used in the US where Donald Trump’s presidential election victory was accurately predicted.”
A separate poll conducted by the organisation across the whole of England and Wales showed that support for the Conservative Party remains strong nationally, on 37 per cent, eleven points ahead of the Labour Party on 26 per cent.
The Liberal Democrats were in third place on 16 per cent, with UKIP reaping in 12 per cent across the two countries, leaving nine per cent for the remaining parties.