Brexit Party Ahead of Conservatives, Challenging Labour for Lead in Westminster Poll

NOTTINGHAM, ENGLAND - APRIL 20: Annunziata Rees-Mogg, sister of Jacob Rees Mogg, a freelance journalist and candidate for the Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections, and Nigel Farage wave party placrds at the Brexit Party rally at the Albert Hall conference centre on April 20, 2019 in Nottingham, England. …
Christopher Furlong/Getty
JOE MARKHAM

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is just one point behind the leading Labour Party in the latest opinion polling for a future Westminster parliament election.

The newly released Opinium poll shows the Labour Party leading on 26 per cent of the vote for headline voting intentions, followed by the Brexit Party on 25 per cent, with the Conservative Party having fallen to third place on 22 per cent.

The Liberal Democrats sit in fourth place on 12 per cent, with the Green Party on four per cent. UKIP, which has suffered a dramatic loss of support with the emergence of the new Brexit Party, sit on just two per cent, with Change UK polling about the same.

The rise of the Brexit Party has so far been staggering considering the party was only launched weeks ago but has seen overwhelming support in the country so far.

The polls come ahead of the Peterborough by-election which was called when former Labour MP Fiona Onasanya was recalled by her constituents after serving prison time for perverting the course of justice. The Brexit Party is expected to perform well in the election in a constituency which voted strongly to leave the European Union.

Such is the surge in support for the Brexit Party that they could potentially take dozens of seats at the next general election if their support in opinion polls was to be replicated on election day. Even senior members of the Conservative Party face losing their seats to the Brexit Party if their current run of support is maintained.

Among those at risk of losing their seats are Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Amber Rudd who represents the Hastings and Rye constituency and former foreign secretary Boris Johnson. Johnson represents the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency but faces the possibility of losing his seat if the Brexit Party achieve around 30 per cent in the election.

This would be particularly devastating to the Conservatives as Mr Johnson is the odds-on favourite to replace Theresa May as prime minister and leader of the Conservative Party.

It is estimated that the Conservative Party could lose up to 113 seats in Parliament if Mr Farage’s party achieves the 30 per cent vote figure. Even if the Brexit Party only achieved half of that amount, 15 per cent would still see the Conservatives lose as many as 67 seats at the election, effectively ending the possibility of them forming a government.

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