Britain is 75 percent likely to get a No Deal Brexit – and it’s going to be fine.
Don’t take it from me. Listen to the real expert, Dr Ruth Lea – formerly a civil servant, then policy advisor at the Institute of Directors and director of the Centre for Policy Studies, and now chief political economist for the Arbuthnot banking group.
Unlike the vast majority of “experts” pontificating about No Deal, Lea has skin in the game — as both advisor to and director of a City private bank for high net worth individuals and commercial clients — and a proven track record of being correct in her judgement calls and of speaking truth to power.
In 1992, she was one of the few economists who predicted a positive outcome for Britain’s departure from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). The received wisdom was that Britain needed the security of having sterling tethered to German interest rates. Lea disagreed that the UK economy should be in thrall to the Bundesbank and argued – correctly – that the economy would thrive once interest rates had been cut.
Lea also correctly called out Gordon Brown on his disastrous deficit spending policies. Brown campaigned – successfully – to have her sacked from the Institute of Directors because he found her criticisms so unhelpful. Subsequently, Lea was vindicated by the 2008 crash.
She has also been a vocal critic of the Remainer Establishment’s Project Fear.
— Ruth Lea (@RuthLeaEcon) May 21, 2019
As she told a BBC interviewer last year, none of the Treasury’s doomsday predictions made prior to the Referendum has come true:
“A vote to leave would actually be such a shock on the economy that the economy would go into recession and there’d be 500,000 extra unemployed.
“Were they right? No.”
Nor, she believes, should Britain be worried about leaving the European Union with No Deal.
As she tells Breitbart News:
“I am not complacent. I do think there will be disruption: a lot of businesses will have to fill out forms that they have never filled out before; there could be all sorts of little problems to do with things like transportation and people not having the right certificates.
There might be disruption for a couple of quarters. But there’ll be nothing that could drive the economy into terminal decline.”
Outside the Westminster bubble, she believes, most people understand this.
“When I talk to people running businesses, they just say: ‘For goodness sake let’s just get on with [Brexit]'”