UK General Election Second Half of This Year, Says PM Sunak

The United Kingdom and United States could be going to the polls to choose a new government within weeks of each other this year as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak says his “working assumption” is a late-2024 vote.

A general election is likely in the “second half of this year”, UK leader Rishi Sunak has said, narrowing down the range without actually naming a date. There had been speculation of a Spring election this year, and legally it could take place at any time from now until late January 2025.

In the United Kingdom, after a brief and failed experiment with fixed-term Parliaments in the last decade, Parliaments last a maximum of five years unless terminated early, which has historically been the norm. While dissolving Parliament is the perogative of the sovereign, in practice it has been the Prime Minister’s choice when to call an election, potentially a powerful incumbent advantage.

Sir Keir Starmer very earnest, talking about change and hope. Does he really represent change? Not a chance.

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) January 4, 2024

The Times reports Sunak said he had much he wanted to do in terms of governing and consequently was not considering an early election. His “working assumption” therefore was no election in the first six months of the year, but rather one in the “second half of this year”. The decision is likely influenced by the economy, given the performance of the Conservatives at the election will depend to some degree on how well off people feel, and while unlikely to improve meaningfully in six months, there may be some pick up.

A small tax cut announced last year will be coming into effect this month, and while enormously outweighed by Conservative party tax rises over their 13 years in power, the Prime Minister may hope for some good will from voters for it nevertheless.

Election timing announcement or not, the campaign unmistakably is underway today as the leaders of the two main contending parties, the legacy-right globalist centrist Conservatives and the legacy-left globalist centrist Labour, out gathering headlines in the regions. The Prime Minister made his remarks in Mansfield, while Labour’s Starmer spoke in Bristol, vowing change but rubbishing the idea of tax cuts.

Given their own woeful performance on a raft of policy areas about which it may be credibly argued their natural supporters care for and vote on, the threat to the Conservatives from the right from the former Brexit party, now the Reform Party, is now the subject of much discussion. Brexit leader Nigel Farage has teased making a return to frontline politics, described as a “worst nightmare” situation for Conservative MPs hoping to hold onto their jobs.

Whether Reform could hope to enter Parliament is under question — the UK electoral system punishes smaller and entrant parties, and Reform predecessors Brexit and UKIP never meaningfully succeeded in the UK Parliament — it certainly has enough support to deny Conservatives their seats. Boris Johnson won the largest COnservative majority in a generation in 2019, in no small part because Farage then decided to step his candidates down so his supporters could vote Tory to give “getting Brexit done” a strong majority in the Commons.

As things stand — and with the usual caveats on pollsters in the UK having a hard time reading the mood of conservative-minded voters — Labour enjoy a strong lead in the latest polls, hovering in the mid-40s. The Conservatives poll a distant second in the mid-20s, with Reform and the Liberal Democrats competing for third place around ten per cent.