Democrat Raphael Warnock Performing 12 Points Worse Among Black Voters Compared to 2021

RIVERDALE, GA - JANUARY 04: Senate candidate, the Rev. Raphael Warnock leaves the stage after speaking at a drive-in campaign rally on January 4, 2021 in Riverdale, Georgia. Warnock faces Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler in tomorrow's run-off election. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) is struggling to secure the same level of support among black voters against Republican candidate Hershel Walker as he did in the 2021 special election.

Despite the establishment media’s claims that Warnock has solidified the black vote, Warnock is struggling with black voters as the incumbent. The media points to a poll where Warnock is leading with 80 percent of the black vote. But 80 percent is an underperformance compared to his two-point win over Republican candidate Kelly Loeffler in 2021. 

In 2021, Warnock won 92 percent of the black vote, 12 points less than the latest polling in Warnock’s race against the former college football star and Trump-endorsed candidate Hershel Walker.

What is worse for Warnock is nine percent of black voters remain undecided, which means Walker could capture a large percentage of the undecideds. Typically, a large number of undecideds favor the challenger rather than the incumbent because the incumbent has a track record voters oppose.

Warnock’s track record includes voting for President Joe Biden’s massive spending bills over the last two years, which have fueled inflation. Experts project inflation will cost American families $5,520 in 2022. Since the Democrats assumed control of the legislative and executive branches of government, Americans have lost $4,200 in annual income, a recent Heritage Foundation study shows.

Inflation is the number one issue among black Georgia voters. Thirty-four percent (a plurality) of black voters say soaring inflation is the top issue, a Marist poll found in September. According to a recent Ipsos poll, 43 percent of Americans fear that inflation will continue to soar under Democrat rule if the party remains in power on Capitol Hill. Only 24 percent say the same of Republicans.

While inflation is dominating the midterm Senate election in Georgia, Warnock’s polling data is aligned with downward national trends for the Democrat Party. According to CNN polling, 74 percent of black voters prefer the Democrat Party to the Republican Party, down from 84 percent in 2020. In 2018, 85 percent of black voters preferred the Democrat Party. In the same time frame, Republicans have picked up three points, from nine percent to 12 percent.

Follow Wendell Husebø on Twitter @WendellHusebø. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality.


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