Independent voters are breaking for Republican candidates less than two weeks before the November 8 midterm elections.
According to CBS/YouGov polling from October 12 to 14, independent voters preferred generic congressional Democrat candidates over Republican ones by 40 percent to 38 percent. However, in a second poll from October 26 to 28, independents said they preferred generic congressional Republican candidates over Democrat candidates by 49 percent to 33 percent.
This means that Republicans saw an 18-point swing in their favor among independent voters over a two-week period.
CBS News /YouGov: Generic Congressional Ballot Polling Trends Among
Democrats 40% (D+2)
Republicans 49% (R+16)
✅ That's – Swing among Independents towards the GOP pic.twitter.com/lQzxSS752e
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 30, 2022
The CBS/YouGov web-based poll surveyed 1,000 Americans and has a +/- 3.5 percent margin of error.
The prospect of Republican victories in both the House and Senate is increasingly growing as likely voters say they are more concerned about issues such as the economy and inflation, which they tend to trust Republican candidates more to handle than Democrat candidates.
Furthermore, while Democrats have increased their campaign messaging to focus on abortion, only five percent of voters say that it is the most important problem facing the nation today, according to a mid-October New York Times/Sienna poll. In comparison, Republicans have focused their messaging on the nation’s suffering economy and high inflation, which a plurality of voters say is the most important issue to them.
In another recent survey, a Rasmussen poll found that Republicans enjoyed a seven-point advantage over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot (49 percent to 42 percent) among all voters. The survey also found that Republicans enjoyed an 18-point advantage over Democrats among likely independent voters.
You can follow Ethan Letkeman on Twitter at @EthanLetkeman.