From the point of view of generational theory, a crisis era turns into a crisis war between two countries following a series of shocks and surprises, with each side crossing some kind of “red line,” and the other side making an even stronger response in retaliation.
Pakistan’s ISI director Ahmad Shuja Pasha (a Doppelgänger of Ray Romano) visiting Washington on Wednesday (AP)
The latest shock in the U.S.-Pakistan relationship is the revelation that the CIA recruited a Pakistani doctor to run a vaccination program in the area around Osama bin Laden’s suspected home, in order to gather DNA evidence from bin Laden family members, according to CNN. The CIA wanted to be completely certain that bin Laden was actually in the house before the military operation that killed him. Two women who appeared to be nurses visited homes and offered free vaccinations for hepatitis B.
Rashee Jooma, former spokesman for Pakistan’s Ministry of Health, criticized the CIA operation, telling CNN, “This was an irresponsible act by the CIA. This will harm the cause [of the Global Campaign to Eradicate Polio].
There have been several other shocks to Pakistan just in the last couple of weeks. American Admiral Mike Mullen publicly accused Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency of murdering a journalist, and of regularly using torture and murder.
The previous shock to Pakistan was last week’s announcement that the Obama administration decided to suspend $800 million in military assistance to the country.
According to the International Business Times, Pakistan just shrugged off the loss of aid. An expert on Pakistan’s military said that the amount was not “substantial enough to immediately change policy,” but that Pakistan’s military might move closer to the militants. “If the partnership frays. Pakistan is no longer seen as fighting America’s war. You can negotiate with militant groups then.”
However, that view seems to have changed rather quickly.
Ahmad Shuja Pasha, head of Pakistan’s ISI, made a surprise visit to Washington on Wednesday, according to CS Monitor, to patch up the rapidly deteriorating relationship between the two countries.
Prime minister Yusuf Raza Gilani expressed “concerns” on Wednesday about how the cuts would affect the country’s fight with extremism. “It is our own war, but we are fighting this war for the entire world.”
Whether these last-minutes statements will make much difference at this point is highly doubtful. It will be interesting to see if the Obama administration restores the $800 million in aid and, if so, how Pakistan’s public reacts to what would be the widespread perception that Pakistan’s government is selling its soul.
Moving closer to China
If you look around the world today, there are two areas where a crisis seems imminent. One area is the European financial crisis, which substantially worsens every day. I honestly don’t think that they can get through the summer without a major crisis but but who knows — maybe they’ll figure out a way to “kick the can down the road” once more.
The other area is Pakistan, where a series of shocks and surprises have caused the US-Pakistan to fall like a rock. Both the European and Pakistan situations could explode any day.
There appear to be no such shocks and surprises in the relationship between Pakistan and China.
On Tuesday, the Pakistan Navy began construction in Karachi shipyard of a missile boat that will be equipped with anti-surface missiles, automatic guns and weapons systems. These and other vessels are being built with the cooperation of China, according to The Nation (Pakistan).
China is the single largest arms supplier to Pakistan, according to the International Business Times. As the US-Pakistan relationship deteriorates, and suspicions are increasing, China will support Pakistan and at the same time as it enlarge its sphere of influence in the Asian Pacific region.
Pakistan’s relationship with China has continued to grow closer, as we’ve been describing for years. Within the last couple of years, China has substantially increased its claims related to border issues with India, and has unambiguously taken Pakistan’s side against India over the claims to the disputed areas of Kashmir and Jammu.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it’s expected that Pakistan will be allied with China and India will be allied with the United States in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war.