This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- President Obama announces major retreat on Syria issue
- History’s ‘Peace in our time’ from 1938 repeats itself
- Russia’s Putin calls the accusations ‘utter nonsense’
- Winston Churchill, Cassandra and me
President Obama announces major retreat on Syria issue
Lots of unhappy faces in this official White House Situation Room photo from Saturday
United States foreign policy went into complete chaos on Saturday,after President Barack Obama announced a major retreat on militaryaction in Syria:
“Now, after careful deliberation, I have decided thatthe United States should take military action against Syrianregime targets. This would not be an open-ended intervention. Wewould not put boots on the ground. Instead, our action would bedesigned to be limited in duration and scope. But I’m confident wecan hold the Assad regime accountable for their use of chemicalweapons, deter this kind of behavior, and degrade their capacityto carry it out.
Our military has positioned assets in the region. The Chairman ofthe Joint Chiefs has informed me that we are prepared to strikewhenever we choose. Moreover, the Chairman has indicated to methat our capacity to execute this mission is not time-sensitive;it will be effective tomorrow, or next week, or one month fromnow. And I’m prepared to give that order.
But having made my decision as Commander-in-Chief based on what Iam convinced is our national security interests, I’m also mindfulthat I’m the President of the world’s oldest constitutionaldemocracy. I’ve long believed that our power is rooted not just inour military might, but in our example as a government of thepeople, by the people, and for the people. And that’s why I’vemade a second decision: I will seek authorization for the use offorce from the American people’s representatives inCongress.”
This is a sharp reversal from earlier Administration statementsthat the White House would not seek Congressional approvalbefore proceeding.
It’s thought that Obama retreated because of public polls that showthat almost 80% of all Americans are opposed to the military action,with bitter splits in both the Republican and Democratic parties,triggering anti-war protests in cities around the world. Republicanshave been especially critical of the weakness of the planned “pinprick,” sending cruise missiles that would, according to critics,accomplish nothing except make Obama feel better.
President Obama could called Congress back immediately, but insteadwill wait until Congress is back in scheduled session on September 9.That means that any military strike, if it occurs at all, will bedelayed for several weeks.
President Obama’s retreat is in sharp contrast to the strong words inFriday’s statement by Secretary of State John Kerry:
“It matters because if we choose to live in a worldwhere a thug and a murderer like Bashar al-Assad can gas thousandsof his own people with impunity, even after the United States andour allies said no, and then the world does nothing about it,there will be no end to the test of our resolve and the dangersthat will flow from those others who believe that they can do asthey will.”
If President Obama had said from the start that he would askfor a vote from Congress as, for example, President George Bushdid before the Iraq action, then there probably wouldn’t bean issue.
But having initially said that he would go ahead on his own, nowthrowing this foreign policy decision into a bitterly divideddysfunctional Congress is going to postpone a decision, but won’tresolve any issues. Anti-war protests will increase substantially,Bashar al-Assad will use the time to protect his assets, and the exactform that the military action will take will be openly debated for thenext month. It’s far from clear that Congress will approve anymilitary action, which means that Obama’s “decision” to go ahead willbe annulled — which means that he hasn’t made any decision after all.It’s hard to believe that this retreat is anything but a way to avoidmaking a decision and blame it on Congress.
This is one more chaotic flip-flop in a foreign policy that’s alreadyin chaos. After a year of major retreats and flip-flops on announcedthat collapsed within 24 hours, a recent announced Mideast peaceprocess that almost everyone in the Mideast considers a joke, and nowa major flip-flop on Syria intervention, there is no reason to believethat President Obama or anyone on his foreign policy team has thevaguest clue what’s going on in the world. NPR and NBC News
History’s ‘Peace in our time’ from 1938 repeats itself
Neville Chamberlain, returning from a 1938 meeting with Hitler, promising “Peace in our time,” holding up a signed agreement
Throughout my life I’ve heard teachers and politicians ridiculeBritain’s prime minister Neville Chamberlain who, in 1938, returnedfrom a meeting with the psychopathic Adolf Hitler with a promise ofdecades, for having “appeased” Hitler. It’s personally astonishing tome to see the same kind of thing happen with the psychopathic Basharal-Assad.
It’s worth repeating a couple of sentences from the lengthy statementfrom Britain’s Lord Paddy Ashdown that I reported yesterday:
“But we should just remember that when NevilleChamberlain came back from Munich with the peace of paper thatsaid ‘Peace in our time,’ he was the most popular prime ministerbefore or since we’ve ever had. And Churchill was deeplyunpopular. Which of these two proved to be right?”
Like Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement, Barack Obama’s reversal isgoing to be extremely popular, given the strong public opposition tothe Syria intervention. But making decisions based on polls can solveproblems temporarily, but create greater problems later on.
Whether we like it or not, America is policeman of the world, and hasbeen since the end of World War II. People always ask me thequestion, “Who made us policemen of the world?” So it’s worth takinga moment to answer that question.
The U.S. became Policeman of the World with the Truman Doctrine, put forth by PresidentHarry Truman in 1947:
“This is a serious course upon which we embark. Iwould not recommend it except that the alternative is much moreserious. The United States contributed $341,000,000,000 towardwinning World War II. This is an investment in world freedom andworld peace. The assistance that I am recommending for Greece andTurkey amounts to little more than 1 tenth of 1 percent of thisinvestment. It is only common sense that we should safeguard thisinvestment and make sure that it was not in vain. The seeds oftotalitarian regimes are nurtured by misery and want. They spreadand grow in the evil soil of poverty and strife. They reach theirfull growth when the hope of a people for a better life hasdied”
President John F. Kennedy, in his inaugural address in 1961, echoedthe Truman Doctrine:
“Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well orill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet anyhardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, to assure thesurvival and the success of liberty. This much we pledge — andmore.”
Since WW II, we’ve signed mutual defense treaties with numerouscountries, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and NewZealand (ANZUS treaty), the Philippines, Israel, Europe, Iceland, andothers. All of these countries have cut back on their own military inthe last 65 years because they’ve counted on U.S. protection.President Obama’s foreign policy has made a number of countries doubtthat their mutual defense treaty with the United States is worthanything.
With regard to Syria, thanks to 2 1/2 years of weakness on the part ofthe Policeman of the World, we already see a gathering of powerfulforces in the region. On the one side, we see Russia supplyingpowerful weapons to Syria, with thousands of soldiers being suppliedby Iran and Hezbollah. On the other we see Saudi Arabia and otherArab states becoming increasingly concerned about the slaughter ofSunni Muslims by Syria, Russia and Iran. We also see Sunni jihadistsfrom Pakistan to Nigeria to Dagestan being trained for combat inSyria.
When the policeman stops doing his job, violence and chaos breakout. We see this in Chicago’s South Side, and we see it inthe Mideast.
Russia’s Putin calls the accusations ‘utter nonsense’
“Syrian government troops are on the offensive andhave the opposition contained within several areas. In thissituation, to give those calling for intervention such a trumpcard is utter nonsense. …
Regarding the position of our American colleagues, who affirm thatgovernment troops used chemical weapons, and say that they haveproof, well, let them show it to the United Nations inspectors andthe Security Council. If they don’t show it, that means there isnone.”
A lot of this is laughable. Russia feels free to invade anyone itwishes, without requesting Security Council approval. In fact, Russiastill has troops in Georgia after Russia’s 2008 invasion, and has, ineffect, annexed two of Georgia’s provinces, South Ossetia andAbkhazia. All this was done with no public debate and noauthorization from the United Nations or any international body.
In fact, Russia’s policy since the Libyan action has been to use theUnited Nations to cripple NATO and the United States, leaving it freeto pursue any military operations it wants. The policy has beenastonishingly successful. ( “22-Apr-11 News — Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics”)
Here’s what I wrote in 2011:
“However, now that the military action is turning intoa stalemate of indefinite duration, Russia is realizing a numberof political objectives, including the ability to cripple Natothrough United Nations politics. …
Russia plans to demand that Nato restrict its activities to onlythe humanitarian acts allowed by the UN resolution, and then vetoany attempt to expand the resolution in the Security Council, inorder to guarantee a continued stalemate in Libya.
This will set a precedent that allows Russia to effectivelycontrol future activities of Nato, since only activities approvedby the Security Council, and hence by Russia, could ever bepermitted.
Moscow has a broader interest in seeing the US and NATO tied downin wars of choice and other protracted confrontations. These warsincrease Russia’s leeway for action in ex-Soviet territories,which is Russia’s top priority, according to the article.Furthermore, if Libya’s oil exports are stopped, then Russia’s ownoil exports become more valuable.”
Winston Churchill, Cassandra and me
When Churchill spoke about what the Nazis were doing, he was ridiculedand disbelieved. When Hitler proved Chamberlain disastrously wrong,Churchill became Prime Minister, and is viewed by history as one ofthe great heroes of the 20th century. However, the moment the warended, Churchill was still so reviled that he couldn’t even win anelection in his own district.
We now know what happened in the 1930s, because exactly the same thingis happening today, with people in Washington totally oblivious towhat’s going on.
I identify very closely with the mythical Cassandra. Zeus fell inlove with her, and gave her a gift: The ability to accurately foretellthe future. When she spurned him, he cursed her by allowing her tokeep her gift of accurately foretelling the future, but no one wouldbelieve anything she said. She was disbelieved and ridiculed when shewarned about the Trojan Horse, but she was ignored, and the peoplewere massacred. After the war was over she was reviled and raped,similar to what happened to Churchill, though more violent. Later,Cassandra became King Agamemnon’s mistress, and she told him that hiswife, Clytemnestra, would kill them both. He didn’t believe her, andClytemnestra killed them both.
I am the living embodiment of Cassandra, but not good looking likeher. Generational Dynamics has not exactly made me popular. I’mshunned even by some people that I’ve known since college. So thestory of what’s happened to Cassandra is exactly what’s happened tome, which indicates that the ancient Greeks discovered some eternaltruths.
But popular or not, in the past ten years, Generational Dynamics hasbeen right, just as Winston Churchill was right.
I’ve received a lot of criticism in the past week, from people on theleft and right calling me names and accusing me of advocating aninvasion of Syria. Actually, I’ve never recommended anything of thesort. I’m an analyst, and I rarely recommend anything. I apply theGenerational Dynamics methodology to tell what’s going on, and whetheryou like it or not, for the last ten years my forecasts and analyseshave been shown to be the most accurate in the world, more accuratethan any web site, journalist, analyst and politician.
Some people, sycophants of Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad,criticize me for calling him a psychopath. But what I’ve seen is thatwe’re dealing with two psychopathic leaders — al-Assad and Putin –both worthy of being perpetrators on a tv show like “Criminal Minds.”But instead of mutilating and dismembering one person at a time,they’re doing it on a mass scale. And instead of a small FBI profileteam finding and arresting the perpetrator, an entire armed force willbe required to stop Syria’s atrocities. Fortunately or unfortunately,the United States is still policeman of the world, and whether we likeit or not, we’re going to be forced militarily to deal with the Syriasituation sooner or later. Obama’s flip-flop will only makeit worse.
However, I will make one recommendation to my readers: Don’t go toofar out on a limb being a supporter of Bashar al-Assad, becausehistory tells us that this is a man whose life is not going to endwell.
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