World View: Gaza Ceasefire Collapses with 'Game Changer' Abduction

World View: Gaza Ceasefire Collapses with 'Game Changer' Abduction

This morning’s key headlines from

  • Africans launch aid program as alarm increases over Ebola
  • Gaza ceasefire collapses with ‘game changer’ abduction
  • Mainstream analysts suddenly realize that this time it’s different
  • Tunisia closes border to foreigners fleeing Libya

Africans launch aid program as alarm increases over Ebola

Countries are closing borders in western Africa to try to stop thespread of the worst epidemic of the Ebola virus in history, and theU.S. Peace Corps and other aid groups are evacuating their personnel. 

The World Health Organization (WHO) is launching a $100 millionresponse plan, and the United States is providing material andtechnical support to Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. 

WHO chiefMargaret Chan told a meeting of presidents of western Africancountries, “The demands created by Ebola in West Africa outstrip yourcapacities to respond.” Reuters

Gaza ceasefire collapses with ‘game changer’ abduction

In yesterday’s World View, I wrotethat it didn’t appear that Hamas had agreed that it was OK for Israelto continue destroying tunnels during the ceasefire, since it wasn’tmentioned in the ceasefire announcement. And yes, that’s exactly whathappened. Apparently John Kerry and BanKi-moon didn’t bother to get an agreement on this point and left Israelto assume that they could continue destroying tunnels and also left Hamasto to assume that they couldn’t. 

Anyway, the ceasefire has been a disaster. Israel’s army keptdestroying tunnels. Suicide bombers popped out of one hidden tunnels and killed two soldiers. Then, a team popped out of another tunnel,grabbed an Israeli soldier, Hadar Goldin, and dragged him back intothe tunnel. The ceasefire ended in 90 minutes. 

A kidnapped soldier is Israel’s worst nightmare. Reports indicatethat the army plans to “flatten” the entire area where the soldiermight be held, even if it risks the soldier’s life. In fact, Hamas isdenying that it abducted anyone and suggests that the soldier isdead, which is what some Israelis would prefer to an abduction. 

So it’s being called a “game-changer,” with good reason. First, anykind of negotiations are now impossible, since Hamas would use thekidnapped soldier as a bargaining chip, which would be intolerable toIsrael. Second, the already growing nationalism of Israel’s population is soaring again, and the segment of the population thatwants to see Israel’s army crush Hamas is also growing. Third, thisis an enormous psychological and political victory for Hamas, whichPalestinians are celebrating, and leads many Palestinians to believethat Hamas has the upper hand and will win the war. 

I wrote yesterday that the Palestinians and the Israelis agree on onething: No return to the status quo ante. That was trueyesterday, and even more true today. BBC

Mainstream analysts suddenly realize that this time it’s different

For the last few weeks I’ve been reading analyst reports predicting aceasefire within a few days, just as there was in the 2008-20099 and 2012Gaza wars. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, thedifference between those wars and the current one is that the youngergenerations in both Gaza and Israel are less willing to compromise.It’s been 66 years since the 1948 war between Arabs and Jewsthat followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of thestate of Israel, so there are almost no survivors left who rememberthe horrors of the 1948 war. On a purely statistical basis, most newcrisis wars begin about 58 years after the end of the previous crisiswar, and each additional year makes a new crisis war more likely. 66years is a statistically high interval. 

Mainstream analysts are pointing to several significant reasons whylonger a war between Israel and Hamas. Instead it’s a proxy warthat’s split the nations of the Mideast down the middle. Turkey,Qatar, Iran, and Hezbollah are solid supporters of Hamas, while SaudiArabia, Jordan, Egypt, and the Palestinian Authority are supporters ofIsrael. In the past, Egypt served as a mediator that both sidestrusted, but no such mediator exists today. 

As I’ve written many times in the last decade, Arabs and Jews areheaded for a new genocidal crisis war, refighting the 1948 war, with aresult that may not be favorable to Israel. It might spiral out of the current war, or it might happenin one year, two years, or three years. At this moment, it’s beginningto look more and more like the time is now. CNN and PRI

Tunisia closes border to foreigners fleeing Libya

As the civil war violence in Tripoli, Libya, continues, thousands offoreign nationals living in and around Tripoli are trying to escapethrough Tunisia. But Tunisia has now closed the border, following anattempt to storm the border by “a massive number of people ofdifferent nationalities,” according to Tunisian authorities, who saidthat there were “suspicious elements,” including a large number ofEgyptians without visas. In an attempt to restore order at one bordercrossing, Tunisian border guards fired into the air. Libyan guards onthe other side of the border, thinking the Tunisians were firing atthem, shot back, wounding the Tunisian head of security. Libya Herald and Khaleej Times

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ebola, World Health Organization, WHO,Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Margaret Chan,Israel, Gaza, Hadar Goldin, Hamas,Turkey, Qatar, Iran, Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia, Jordan,Egypt, Palestinian Authority, Tunisia, Libya 

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