Iowa: Marist Poll Assumes Democrat Advantage Six Points Higher than 2008

A Marist Poll on Thursday found President Barack Obama with an astounding eight-point lead over Mitt Romney in Iowa, even as the RealClearPolitics average had the state tied and a Rasmussen Reports poll on Thursday found Romney leading by three points. 

Marist says the breakdown of likely voters in its poll Iowa is 36% Democrat, 31% Republican, and 33% independent. Democrats only had a one-point advantage in 2008, when enthusiasm for Obama was at its peak. 

But when among those 33% who are independent are broken down even further, 12% leaned Democrat and 10% leaned Republican, giving Democrats a two-point advantage among independents Marist polled. This means Democrats actually have a seven-point advantage in the poll. 

In 2008, Democrats only had a one-point advantage over Republicans on election night in Iowa. Democrats made up 34% of Iowans who voted in the presidential election in 2008. Republicans made up 33%. Independents made up 33%. 

And on Thursday, sensing the state is in play, the Romney campaign sent Ann Romney to campaign events at a food bank and a furniture store in Iowa. 

Ann Romney testified that her husband was caring, reacting to negative press after Mother Jones Magazine published a portion of Romney’s remarks at a fundraiser in an incomplete video of the event.  

“Looking back at the way that Mitt lived his life, this kind of example that he lived and the opportunities Mitt had for his children, taking them with him on these trips to people that were sick or that needed help,” Mrs. Romney said, according to the Des Moines Register. “Because is that not the real measure of a person? It’s not how much money we make but how we live our lives.”

The Marist poll found forty-nine percent of Iowans thought the country was headed in the wrong direction while 43% thought the country was headed in the right direction. This means Obama is in trouble if Democrats don’t give him a seven-point advantage over Republicans at the polls in November, which seems highly unlikely.