Donald Trump leads the most recent polls in eight of the twelve Super Tuesday states, which will vote Tuesday March 1.
Trump leads all of the Deep South “SEC” states and both New England states, backing rivals Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio into their lone strongholds of Texas and Minnesota, respectively and prompting the New York Times to run the headline “How Marco Rubio Could Lose Every State on Super Tuesday and Still Win.” And the most recent polls in Colorado and Arkansas showing him as an also-ran are relatively dated.
Trump is trending up following his massive victories in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries and the Nevada caucus. If the polls are any indication, he will be the clear frontrunner coming out of Super Tuesday and heading to Florida, where Marco Rubio is staking his entire political career on the March 15 primary. Trump is beating Rubio in Florida 44 to 28, according to Thursday’s Quinnipiac poll.
Let’s look at the Super Tuesday lineup:
Trump leads Alabama with 36 percent support compared to 19 percent for Rubio and 12 percent for Cruz, according to a poll conducted by the Alabama-based firm Master Image that was released Wednesday. Trump also clocked in at 36 percent in that poll in late January and early February.
Trump has been popular in Alabama since the early days of his campaign, and some of his most enthusiastic early rallies occurred in Alabama. Trump is the odds-on favorite.
The most recent major Republican poll to come out of Alaska showed Trump leading. In an Alaska Dispatch News poll released January 23, Trump led among Republicans 27.9 percent to Ted Cruz’s 23.8 and with Republicans and independents combined, 28.4 to Cruz’s 19.1. More than a month and some primary victories later, Trump’s lead has presumably only grown.
It is not clear how much former Alaska governor Sarah Palin’s endorsement might have helped Trump in Alaska, considering the length of time that she’s been out of the Governor’s Mansion, and considering too some lingering hard feelings in her home state about the exposure that her vice presidential campaign brought to Alaska. But with a rural landscape and a largely pro-Second Amendment voting base, Trump is in good shape.
Here’s one where Trump is actually trailing Cruz according to the most recent poll. A Talk Business/Hendrix College poll found Cruz leading Trump 27 to 23, with Rubio also at 23 percent. That poll was released on February 4, before Trump scored his commanding victory in South Carolina, so it’s possible that Cruz’s lead has declined since then.
A major poll has not come out in Colorado since November 2015, when a Quinnipiac poll showed Ben Carson leading with 25 percent to Rubio’s 19 and Trump’s 17 percent. Due to the length of time that has transpired, and Carson’s steep decline since November, it is fair to say that there’s no up-to-date publicly available poll data out of Colorado.
Trump is simply dominating.
There are three recent polls to choose from, all released earlier this week.
The TEGNA/Survey USA poll has Trump with 45 percent to Rubio’s 19 and Cruz’s 16. The Fox 5 Atlanta poll has Trump at 34 and Rubio and Cruz at 22 and 20, respectively. And the WSB-TV/Landmark poll has Trump at 32 to Rubio’s 23 and Cruz’s 19.
Breitbart News has heard from a source close to the Georgia primary that black enthusiasm for Trump is surging in the state, as evidenced by new black Trump volunteers and supporters.
Trump is leading Massachusetts in the WBUR poll released earlier this week, claiming 40 percent support in the Bay State to Rubio and Kasich’s 19 percent apiece and Cruz’s 10 percent.
Trump’s win in New Hampshire showed his appeal among New England Republicans, who had a brief run of glory during Trump supporter Scott Brown’s Senate run between 2010 and 2013. Also, Massachusetts has a Republican governor in Charlie Baker, though Baker said that it’s “unlikely” he will vote for Trump. New England Republicans are fiercely independent and decidedly anti-establishment. All that bodes well for Trump to win a landslide victory in Massachusetts.
The most recent poll in Minnesota came out in late January. The Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll showed Rubio leading with 23 percent to Cruz’s 21 and Trump’s 18.
It is not exactly clear where Trump stands in Minnesota, but this one could be a trouble spot. Despite the independent streak that elected Jesse Ventura the state’s governor, the Rubio camp is gaining headlines in Minnesota for blasting a white supremacist PAC for making robocalls saying “Don’t vote for a Cuban, vote for Donald Trump.” Even though Trump obviously had nothing to do with it, the Rubio campaign is clearly digging in deep in Minnesota, thinking it has enough support here to justify the time and effort.
Trump is ahead in Oklahoma and gaining. This week’s Cole Hargrave Snodgrass and Associates poll has Trump at 29 percent followed by Rubio at 21 and Cruz at 20. Trump gained five points in that poll in two weeks as Cruz plunged five points.
Cruz badly needs a win in Oklahoma to show that he can win more than just his home state of Texas on Super Tuesday. But Oklahomans don’t tend to like Texans too much, and the fact that Rubio is running neck-in-neck with Cruz here only helps Trump to bolster his lead.
The most recent Middle Tennessee State University poll has Trump at 33 percent to Cruz’s 17 percent. Tennessee is a strong industrial state with a proud work ethic, which bodes well for Trump.
In Ted Cruz’s home state, Cruz is ahead of Trump 38 to 23, according to the most recent Monmouth University poll, which was released Thursday.
Cruz is the favorite here, but the more Trump can cut into Cruz’s expected margin of victory the more he can sink Cruz’s chances of going forward – especially if he can play Cruz to within ten points.
Trump leads with 33 percent to Rubio’s 14 and Kasich’s 14, according to a VPR poll conducted between February 3 and February 17.
Trump’s strength in New England, evident to anyone who knows the spirit of New England Republicans and independents, has confounded the liberal media. If Trump continues to gain in these states, he might actually be able to put some of New England – namely New Hampshire – in play during the general election, forcing Democrats to spend more money on the New England states than usual.
Trump is absolutely dominating this week’s Monmouth University poll. Here’s the breakdown: Trump 41, Rubio 27, and Cruz 14.
Virginia is pivotal, not just because of its importance in the Republican Party but because it’s a must-win swing state in the general election. Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by less than four points in Virginia in 2012 due to Northern Virginia, which has become increasingly liberal and immigrant-heavy. More importantly, the Clintons managed to plant their old consigliere Terry McAuliffe in the governor’s mansion, which gives Hillary Clinton a major advantage in the general.
Trump needs to focus on Virginia, and he needs to focus on Virginia big. If the polls are any indication, he’s on the right track.
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