Trump Surges to Neck-and-Neck with Clinton in Nate Silver’s Florida Prediction

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump addresses supporters during a campaign rally at Silver Spurs Arena inside the Osceola Heritage Park in Kissimmee, Florida on August 11, 2016

Between Sunday and Monday, Editor-In-Chief of FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver had both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump winning Florida, putting the race for the state’s electoral votes on a knife’s edge, but with a great show of momentum in recent weeks for Trump and regression for Clinton.

On Sunday, Silver projected a win for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump with a four point spread over Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton who remains plagued by FBI, Clinton Foundation, State Department and email scandals. Trump garnered 52 percent as of that day compared to Clinton’s 48 percent in the poll’s only forecast, according to the Daily Caller. The outlet noted that Trump had surged from a 22 percent chance of winning the state back on October 15 whereas Clinton had fallen from 78 percent at that time.

By Monday, the average favored Clinton 54 to 46 after FiveThirtyEight adjustments. Before adjustments, the spread between them was a mere 1.4 percent. A projected vote share for November 8 as of Monday, adjusted from a polling average, showed only half a percentage gap between the two candidates with Clinton gaining the sliver of an edge.

The surge for Trump comes as a YouGov poll of 1,188 registered voters from November 2-4 resulted in a tie between Trump and Clinton, according to FiveThirtyEight. A Remington poll of 2,352 likely voters from November 1-2 showed Trump with a three point lead over Clinton that closed to two points once weighted. A Quinnipiac University poll of 884 likely voters gave Clinton a one point lead that moved to two points once weighted.

Trump has led as much as six percent, adjusted, in Florida polls over the past two weeks while Clinton’s lead has not exceeded three percent in the same time frame.

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