fivethirtyeight

Nate Silver: Trump Has 57 Percent Chance of Winning If Election Held Today

Nate Silver writes that it is very common for post-convention bounce to mask the reality of a losing campaign. “John McCain and Sarah Palin did so in 2008, for example, and even Walter Mondale led a couple of polls in 1984. But those bounces do not always turn out to be predictive.”

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (L) and Republican vice presidential candidate Mike Pence take questions from the audience at the The Hotel Roanoke & Conference Center on July 25, 2016 in Roanoke, Virginia. Trump made a point to address the evangelicals during his visit to the bible belt. Trump is …