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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (L) and Republican vice presidential candidate Mike Pence take questions from the audience at the The Hotel Roanoke & Conference Center on July 25, 2016 in Roanoke, Virginia. Trump made a point to address the evangelicals during his visit to the bible belt. Trump is …

Nate Silver: Trump Has 57 Percent Chance of Winning If Election Held Today

Nate Silver writes that it is very common for post-convention bounce to mask the reality of a losing campaign. “John McCain and Sarah Palin did so in 2008, for example, and even Walter Mondale led a couple of polls in 1984. But those bounces do not always turn out to be predictive.”