Poll: Elizabeth Warren Edges out Joe Biden in Early Primary States

Combo Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has a slight edge in early primary and caucus states, according to the CBS News/YouGov Tracker results released Sunday.

Warren, who has enjoyed a top tier position for the bulk of her presidential bid, has a slight edge in early primary and caucus states, according to the CBS News poll conducted by YouGov. The poll – taken August 28 – September 4, 2019, among 16,525 registered voters, 7,804 of whom were Democrats or Democrat-leaning independents – found Warren with a slight edge in early primary states, besting Joe Biden 26 percent to his 25 percent. The poll considered Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia early primary or caucus states.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) fell to third place with 19 percent support. The survey shows Sen. Kamala Harris’s (D-CA) continued struggle to conjure enthusiasm, falling to a distant fourth place with eight percent support. She is followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D), Beto O’Rourke (D), Julián Castro (D), and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) with six percent, four percent, two percent, and two percent, respectively. The remaining candidates garnered one percent or less. The margin of error is +/- 1.8 percent, putting Warren and Biden at a statistical tie.

The tracker found Warren leading in New Hampshire, despite other polls showing Sanders on the rise in the Granite State. It is a close matchup, with all three top tier candidates within two points of one another. It shows Warren, Biden, and Sanders with 27 percent, 26 percent, and 25 percent, respectively:

The poll also found Biden leading in Iowa with 29 percent to Sanders’ 26 percent and Warren’s 17 percent:

Biden continues to enjoy a massive lead in South Carolina with 43 percent support– 25 points more than Sanders’ 18 percent support. Warren came in third with 14 percent support in the Palmetto State:

Sanders leads in Nevada, with 29 percent. He is followed by Biden, who garnered 27 percent, and Warren, who saw 18 percent:

CBS News’s tracker also estimated the number of convention delegates per candidate. While Biden holds the lead with 600, Warren is on the rise with 545. This is due, in part, to supporters of lower-tier candidates switching over– something to be expected as the field narrows.

CBS News reports:

Bernie Sanders rounds out the top tier of candidates with 286 delegates in a race that has tightened substantially over the summer. Biden’s position is helped by amassing enough delegates from South Carolina and other Southern states, as well as consistently strong showings elsewhere to keep him up in the overall delegate standings — albeit not by much.

Voters are beginning to view Warren as a more viable candidate as well. Her electability is on the rise. In June, just 39 percent said she could “probably” beat Trump. That number has changed to 55 percent.

All three of the top tier candidates will appear on the same debate stage on Thursday, September 12 in Houston, Texas.


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