Poll: Bernie Sanders, Tulsi Gabbard Surge in New Hampshire, Biden Drops to Fourth

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks at a campaign rally on March 23 in Los Angeles. Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images
Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has taken the lead in New Hampshire, and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) has experienced a significant surge in the Granite State, according to a post-debate Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll released on Monday.

The poll, taken from November 21-24, 2019, among 500 likely New Hampshire Democrat primary voters, found Sanders retaking the lead in his neighboring state with 16 percent support, followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) with 14 percent, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) and former Vice President Joe Biden (D) closely behind with 13 percent and 12 percent, respectively.

While six points separate the remainder of the candidates from the top tier, Gabbard finds herself in fifth place with six percent support – two points ahead of Andrew Yang and three points ahead of Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA). They garnered four percent and three percent, respectively.

The remaining candidates saw two percent support or less. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent, signaling a statistical tie among the top tier candidates. What is more, 21 percent of respondents indicated that they are “undecided,” and only 43 percent indicated that their “minds were made up”:

According to the Boston Globe, “support for Sanders and Warren was essentially unchanged from the last Suffolk/Globe poll in August,” but Biden “lost 9 percentage points, while Buttigieg gained 7 points.”

The poll reflects the increased skepticism of Biden’s viability among Democrat voters.

“I had pretty high hopes for Joe Biden. I wanted to like him and vote for him because of his time with the Obama administration and I thought he had the experience,” one voter, Michael Mahany, 61, told the Boston Globe.

“But he just hasn’t had his stuff together, and he just hasn’t stepped up in the debates and I am not sure he ever will now,” he added.

The poll also found that Gabbard is appealing to moderate voters in the Granite State:

The survey found Gabbard does better among men and moderates. And far more than any other candidate, her supporters said that if Gabbard doesn’t become the nominee, they will consider voting for Trump or for a third-party candidate:

“I liked Tulsi more after Clinton attacked her,” said Mark Gold, a 58-year-old computer consultant who lives in Concord. “The Democratic Party appears to like to manipulate things for their preferred candidate and I think that demonstrated she is different.”

“The narrative is changing in New Hampshire,” Suffolk Political Research Center director David Paleologos said, noting the ongoing battle between the New England senators.

“Now, add to that the war between Buttigieg and Biden,” he added.

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