Nate Silver: At This Pace, No Caucus Results Until After New Hampshire Primary

Caucus goers check in at a caucus at Roosevelt Hight School, Monday, Feb. 3, 2020, in Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver added a dose of perspective to the disastrous rollout of the Iowa caucus results late Monday night, noting that — if the snail’s pace of the results’ release remains the same — voters will not know who won Iowa until after New Hampshire’s February 11 primary.

Comprehensive, meaningful results from the highly-anticipated Iowa caucuses have yet to come out of the Hawkeye State, with the Iowa Democrat Party attributing the delay to “quality control” — a phrase that sparked concerns across the board.

Shortly after 11:30 p.m. ET, Silver wrote:

At this point, it’s been 3.6 hours since the start of the caucuses and 1.9% of precincts have reported results, which extrapolates out to knowing the results in a mere 189 hours, which would be at 9:30 pm next Tuesday, after voting in the NH primary has already closed.

The Iowa Democrat Party has since reported the discovery of “inconsistencies” in its multiple sets of caucus results but downplayed it as “simply a reporting issue.”

“The app did not go down and this is not a hack or an intrusion,” IDP Communications Director Mandy McClure said in a statement. “The underlying data and paper trail is sound and will simply take time to further report the results.”

“Getting past midnight Eastern (in 7 minutes) with 0 results officially reported kind of feels like the point of no return for the Iowa caucus,” Silver added:

While Silver said, based on early results, that results leaned in a positive direction for both Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Pete Buttigieg (D), he noted the difficulty in stating where they stand now, given the stunning lack of results over the past two hours:

As of midnight ET, zero percent of precincts had reported results.

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