Polling Averages: Biden Leads Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan by Less than Hillary Clinton Did in 2016

ST LOUIS, MO - OCTOBER 09: Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hill
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Hannah Knudsen

Former Trump challenger Hillary Clinton led then-candidate Donald Trump in three key states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — in June 2016, as current polls also show Joe Biden (D) leading the president in the states that ultimately voted red in the last presidential election. In two of those states, Biden is leading by less than Clinton did in 2016.

All eyes will be on key Rust Belt states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, as the presidential election draws closer. Polls tend to show the former vice president leading President Trump in the key swing states, but June polls from 2016 told a similar story, predicting wins for the former secretary of state, who went on to suffer a shocking defeat in November.

However, at this point in the race, Biden leads by less than Clinton did in both Michigan and Wisconsin:

The RealClearPolitics’ (RPC) June average, as of Monday, showed Biden leading Trump by eight points in Michigan — 49.8 percent to Trump’s 41.8 percent. The RCP average for June 22, 2016, showed Clinton up by 8.3 percent — 46.3 percent to 38 percent.

The average comes on the heels of a recent poll from the Trafalgar Group, showing Biden up in Michigan by a single percentage point, indicating a race much closer than the current average suggests:

A look at Wisconsin’s numbers — comparing RCP’s average from June 22, 2016, t0 June 22, 2020 — tells a similar story, with Biden leading by an average of 5.4 percent. On June 22, 2016, Clinton led by an average of 11 percent.

Pennsylvania appears to stray from the other two states, as the RCP average shows the former vice president up by 5.6 percent. The June 22, 2016, average showed Clinton leading by half a percentage point. However, it should be noted that Trump “far exceeded” Biden in this year’s presidential primary raw vote totals in the Keystone State.

As Breitbart News reported:

Trump received, according to the latest reported totals, 870,291 votes this week in Pennsylvania, a key rust belt state that helped put him in the White House, while Biden received more than 100,000 votes less than Trump at just 749,712. As Pennsylvania’s Democrat Gov. Tom Wolf has extended the timeframe for several counties to report some of their final results, these totals will likely change slightly between now and next week. But some insights can be gleaned from the numbers as reported now.

…

Compared with Trump’s total from the 2016 presidential primary in Pennsylvania, the president finished just under 30,000 votes less than his totals then. In a competitive race that year, in which Trump faced off against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich in the Keystone State, the president received 892,702 votes. Cruz and Kasich both received more than 300,000 votes each that year, while the now-dropped-out Weld this year got just over 42,000 votes.

While not definitive when it comes to predicting what will come to pass in the general election, this detail could indicate higher levels of support for Trump among his base than Biden among the Democrat base. What’s more, even though Sanders dropped out on April 8, he received 179,714 votes in Pennsylvania’s primary this week — a stunningly high number for a candidate who has been out of the race for nearly two full months now.

President Trump eked out wins in all three states in 2016, winning Pennsylvania by 0.7 percent, Michigan by 0.3 percent, and Wisconsin by 0.7 percent.

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