NYT Poll: Joe Biden Holds 14-Point Lead over President Trump

Former Vice President of the United States Joe Biden speaking with supporters at a community event at Sun City MacDonald Ranch in Henderson, Nevada.
Gage Skidmore/Flickr

Joe Biden (D) holds a 14-point lead nationally over President Trump, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released on Wednesday.

The survey, taken June 17-22 among 1,337 registered voters, showed the Democrat Party’s presumptive nominee leading the president 50 percent to 36 percent. According to the Times, the results serve as a sign that Trump is “the clear underdog right now in his fight for a second term”:

But among a striking cross-section of voters, the distaste for Mr. Trump has deepened as his administration failed to stop a deadly disease that crippled the economy and then as he responded to a wave of racial-justice protests with angry bluster and militaristic threats. The dominant picture that emerges from the poll is of a country ready to reject a president whom a strong majority of voters regard as failing the greatest tests confronting his administration.

The Times’ survey shows the former vice president leading with not just black, Hispanic, and female voters, but “groups that have typically been the backbones of Republican electoral success,” the paper noted.

“About two-fifths of whites over 65 said they disapproved of Mr. Trump’s handling of both the coronavirus and race relations,” the Times added:

Biden, according to the survey, is up 22 percent among female voters, 3 percent among male voters, 74 percent among black voters, and 39 percent among Hispanic voters.

The survey coincides with a Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey released this week, showing Biden up 12 points over the president, 56 percent to 44 percent.

However, a recent look at polls in swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan signals positive news for the president. While poll averages tend to show Biden leading in those states, his lead is smaller than margins Hillary Clinton maintained this time in 2016.

As Breitbart News reported:

The RealClearPolitics’ (RPC) June average, as of Monday, showed Biden leading Trump by eight points in Michigan — 49.8 percent to Trump’s 41.8 percent. The RCP average for June 22, 2016, showed Clinton up by 8.3 percent — 46.3 percent to 38 percent.

[…]

A look at Wisconsin’s numbers — comparing RCP’s average from June 22, 2016, t0 June 22, 2020 — tells a similar story, with Biden leading by an average of 5.4 percent. On June 22, 2016, Clinton led by an average of 11 percent.

Pennsylvania appears to stray from the other two states, as the RCP average shows the former vice president up by 5.6 percent. The June 22, 2016, average showed Clinton leading by half a percentage point. However, it should be noted that Trump “far exceeded” Biden in this year’s presidential primary raw vote totals in the Keystone State.

The Times/Sienna College survey has a margin of error +/- 3 percent.

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