Poll: Biden Leads Trump by 36 Points in Massachusetts, 9 More than Hillary Clinton in 2016

EMMETSBURG, IOWA - DECEMBER 02: Democratic presidential candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at a campaign stop on December 2, 2019 in Emmetsburg, Iowa. The stop was part of his 650-mile "No Malarkey" campaign bus trip through rural Iowa. The 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses will take place on February …
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Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 36 points in a poll released on Thursday by MassINC Polling/WBUR.

The poll found that 63 percent of respondents support Biden, while only 27 percent support Trump.

Trump’s “favorable/unfavorable” rating was the lowest among the five elected public officials respondents were asked to rate.

Only 27 percent gave Trump a “favorable” rating, while 63 percent gave him an “unfavorable” rating, mirroring the presidential ballot preference.

Biden, in contrast, had a 58 percent “favorable” rating and a 30 percent “unfavorable” rating.

Gov. Charlie Baker, a Republican, had a 70 percent “favorable” rating and a 14 percent “unfavorable” rating.

Two candidates vying for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate had very similar “favorable/unfavorable” ratings.

Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) had a 46 percent “favorable” rating and a 21 percent “unfavorable” rating. His challenger, Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-MA-4) had a 47 percent “favorable” and 25 percent “unfavorable” rating.

The poll of 501 likely voters was conducted between August 6 and August 9 and has a 4.4 percent margin of error.

Biden’s current margin over Trump in the Bay State is nine points greater than Hillary Clinton’s margin was in 2016, when she won the state’s 11 electoral college votes with a popular vote victory of 27 points, 60 percent to 33 percent. In raw votes, Clinton defeated Trump by 881,000 votes, 1,964,768 to 1,083,069.

Had Hillary Clinton defeated Trump by 36 points, rather than 27 points, in 2016, her popular vote margin would have been close to 1.2 million, about 300,000 more than 881,000.

As Breitbart News reported earlier this month, Biden is currently outperforming Hillary Clinton’s 2016 results by nine points in a poll in another blue state, California:

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 39 points in California, 67 percent to 28 percent, according to a Berkeley IGS (Institute of Governmental Studies) poll released on Tuesday.

Biden’s current poll margin is nine points higher than Hillary Clinton’s 30 point margin, 61 percent to 31 percent, over Trump in California in the 2016 presidential election, when she secured 8.7 million votes in the state to Trump’s 4.4 million – another sign that the most populous state in the country is becoming increasingly radicalized as a far left one-party state.

The recent poll results in Massachusetts and California are consistent with what appears to be a nationwide trend.

While deep blue states in which Hillary Clinton won in 2016 are even more opposed to President Trump in 2020 than they were in 2016, battleground states in which Joe Biden enjoyed comfortable leads earlier in the summer are now tightening considerably.

The electoral college implications of this trend are significant.

Should President Trump continue to close the gap in battleground state polls, he could be well on the way to securing a similar electoral college victory in November 2020 as he did in November 2016 (306 to 232 before seven faithless electors defected), even if greater blue state margins for Biden give him a higher popular vote advantage in 2020 than the two percent popular vote advantage (48 percent to 46 percent) Hillary Clinton had in 2016.


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