Poll: J.D. Vance Increases Lead Heading into Tuesday’s Ohio Senate Primary

J.D. Vance, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Ohio, speaks at a campaign rally on
Drew Angerer/Getty Images
Wendell Husebø

Trump-endorsed candidate J.D. Vance has increased his lead heading into Tuesday’s Ohio Republican Senate primary, a Sunday Trafalgar Group poll revealed.

Twenty-six percent of likely Ohio voters support Vance in the seven-way primary. Vance’s polling has increased once percent since Fabrizio, Lee & Associates polled the race on April 21.

Vance took the lead over rival candidate and former Ohio state treasurer Josh Mandel after Donald Trump endorsed Vance in March.

Josh Mandel, a Republican former Ohio treasurer running for an open U.S. Senate seat in Ohio, speaks during a debate against Morgan Harper, a progressive Democrat, Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, in Columbus, Ohio.

Josh Mandel, a Republican former Ohio treasurer running for an open U.S. Senate seat in Ohio, speaks during a debate against Morgan Harper, a progressive Democrat, Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, in Columbus, Ohio. (Jay LaPrete/AP)

Mandel, who polled at 18 percent on April 21, is now polling in third place at 20 percent, two points higher than April’s poll. Mandel’s polling has not fluctuated much during the race.

Republican Matt Dolan participates in a debate against five other candidates for Cuyahoga County executive Wednesday, Oct. 13, 2010, in Cleveland. (Tony Dejak / AP)

While the two notable candidates have duked it out, candidate Matt Dolan has surged in the polls and found himself in second place with 22 percent support. March and April polling showed Dolan with only nine percent of the vote. In just a few weeks, Dolan’s numbers have shot up 13 percentage points in the crowded race. Dolan has downplayed the significance of Trump’s influence in the Republican Party. 

Both Mandel and Vance have received high-quality endorsements from conservatives. Vance has won the endorsement of Donald Trump, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), and Matt Gaetz (R-FL). Mandel’s endorsements include Club for Growth and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX).

The primary on Tuesday, May 3, will determine which Republican will compete in the general election on November 8 to replace retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH).

The poll sampled 1081 GOP primary voters from April 29-May 1 with a 2.99 margin of error. Trafalgar has an A- pollster rating from FiveThirtyEight.

Follow Wendell Husebø on Twitter and Gettr @WendellHusebø. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality.

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