Analysts Shift House Predictions Heavily In Favor of Republicans

MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE - AUGUST 15: People cheer as President Donald Trump speaks to supporters at a rally in Manchester on August 15, 2019 in Manchester, New Hampshire. The Trump 2020 campaign is looking to flip the battleground state of New Hampshire with the use of a strong economy and …
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Analysts from the Cook Political Report, who predict the probable outcome for U.S. House of Representatives races, released its newest round of predictions on Thursday, moving ten districts heavily in favor of the Republican incumbent or candidate versus the Democrat.

This week, Cook shifted 12 race predictions in total — ten races in favor of Republicans and two races in favor of Democrats — while there are now 35 seats overall across the county that are considered to be “toss-up” or worse for the incumbent.

The 12 districts that Cook changed were:

  • Rep. Greg Stanton (D) in Arizona’s Fourth Congressional District went from “Likely Democrat” to “Leans Democrat.”
  • Rep. Young Kim (R) in California’s Fortieth Congressional District went from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.”
  • Rep. Mike Levin (D) in California’s Forty-Ninth Congressional District went from “Likely Democrat” to “Leans Democrat.”
  • Rep. Joe Courtney (D) in Connecticut’s Second Congressional District went from “Solid Democrat” to “Likely Democrat.”
  • Rep. Jahana Hayes (D) in Connecticut’s Fifth Congressional District went from “Likely Democrat” to “Leans Democrat.”
  • Rep. Lauren Underwood (D) in Illinois’ Fourteenth Congressional District went from “Leans Democrat.” to “Likely Democrat.”
  • Minnesota’s First Congressional District, Vacant but previously held by a Republican, went from “Likely Republican” to “Solid Republican.”
  • Rep. Dina Titus (D) in Nevada’s First Congressional District went from “Likely Democrat” to “Toss-up.”
  • Oregon’s Fifth Congressional District, an open seat currently held by a Democrat, went from “Leans Democrat.” to “Toss-up.”
  • Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) in Pennsylvania’s First Congressional District from “Likely Republican” to “Solid Republican.”
  • Rep. Susan Wild (D) in Pennsylvania’s Seventh Congressional District from “Toss-up” to “Leans Republican.”
  • Rep. Scott Perry (R) in Pennsylvania’s Tenth Congressional District from “Likely Republican” to “Solid Republican.

Cook also shifted its outlook on the midterm elections, noting that the net Republican gains could be between 20 and 35 seats — while the Republicans only need to net five to take back the House.

The prediction report acknowledged that part of its change is due to President Joe Biden’s average approval rating remaining underwater in dozens of districts he took during the 2020 presidential election while the country goes through soaring inflation rates, record gas prices, and a baby formula shortage, all while the president’s Build Back Better legislative agenda has stalled.

“As the parties navigate primaries and begin polling and placing fall ad buys, Republicans’ House advantage looks as robust as ever,” Cook said, also mentioning that independent voters are being increasingly concerned about inflation. A recent CBS News/You Gov poll revealed that only 34 percent of independents in the United States approve of how Biden is handling his job as president.

All of this comes roughly six months before the midterm elections in November, and while the country is in the middle of the primary season where Biden’s endorsement has a lackluster effect on candidates.

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Write to him at or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss.


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