Rasmussen Poll: Republicans Show 5-Point Lead on Generic Ballot, Slight Dip After Overturning of Roe v. Wade

House Minority Whip Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-
Drew Angerer/Getty Images

A generic Republican candidate enjoys a five-point lead over a generic Democrat, a slight three-point dip after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday.

As the Republicans look to retake control of Congress in the 2022 midterm elections only 130 days away, the most recent Rasmussen Reports survey showed that 47 percent of likely U.S. voters would elect a Republican, compared to the 42 percent who said they would vote for the Democrat.

Only four percent said they would vote for some other candidate, and the other eight percent said they were not sure. However, the GOP’s lead shrunk by three points from the previous week when the lead spread eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent.

The slight dip in the Republicans’ lead on the generic ballot follows the Supreme Court’s historic 5-4 opinion overturning Roe v. Wade through its ruling on the Dobbs case, which determined the right to abortion is not included in the Constitution, returning the issue of abortion laws and regulations to state legislatures.

However, there is still time for the generic ballot to move either way before the November election.

Rasmussen has previously noted that in June 2018 — before the Democrats took the House for the first time in eight years — they only had a four-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot.

Additionally, June 2018 was slightly up from May 2018, at which time the Democrats only had a one-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. That June, the Democrats held a four-point advantage of 45 percent to 41 percent.

Plus, as the 2018 November midterm election neared, the margins between the Democrats and Republicans came extremely close — Republicans had 46 percent to 45 percent for Democrats.

In this poll, the Republican Party has a heavy advantage (15 points) with independents over the Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 44 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, while only 29 percent said they would vote for the Democrat candidate.

Additionally, 23 percent of black voters and 42 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today. The percentage of black voters who said they would vote for Republicans is also up three percent from last week.

For Democrats, 64 percent of black voters and 41 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for them. Compared to last week, Democrats have lost four percent of black voters.

Furthermore, there is a wide spread in voter intensity between the parties, with 89 percent of Republican voters saying they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate and only 85 percent of Democrats saying the same thing.

The Rasmussen Reports survey was conducted from June 26 to 30 and questioned 2,500 likely U.S. voters. The survey had a two percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Write to him at jbliss@breitbart.com or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss.


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