Poll: Donald Trump Has Commanding Lead over 2024 Primary Field in Texas, New Hampshire

Former President Donald Trump speaks at the Road to Majority conference Friday, June 17, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn. (Former President Donald Trump speaks at the Road to Majority conference Friday, June 17, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn. (Mark Humphrey, File/AP)
Mark Humphrey, File/AP

Former President Donald Trump leads the 2024 Republican primary field by nearly 20 points in New Hampshire and Texas, according to a pair of polls.

A Neighborhood Research/Media NH poll shows Trump with a 19 point lead over his next closest competitor, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), among potential Republican primary voters who were asked to rank their top three choices for 2024. The 45th president garnered 41.1 percent of the response, while 22.1 percent said they would vote for DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence came in third at 1.3 percent. Several other candidates, including Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), Former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo polled under one percent. Another 30.1 percent were undecided. Respondents were not provided options but were asked an open-ended question about their top three picks for the next Republican nominee.

A CWS/Defend Texas Liberty PAC poll, which sampled those who voted in the Lone Star State’s Republican primaries or runoffs earlier this year, documented a similar trend in Texas. Trump again enjoyed a 19 point lead over DeSantis, at 45 percent and 26 percent, respectively. Pence came in third place at six percent, while Haley and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) both garnered 5 percent of the response, placing them in fourth place right behind the former vice president. Four percent of poll participants placed their support behind Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX), and an additional nine percent were undecided.

These results from New Hampshire and Texas mirror a national pattern, as 53 percent of Americans would vote for Trump, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average for the 2024 Republican primary. DeSantis is more than 30 percentage points behind Trump but holds a strong lead over the rest of the field.

The CWS/Defend Texas Liberty PAC poll also gauged how the race would shake out if Trump sat out the 2024 election. In that scenario, DeSantis became the clear frontrunner, receiving 56 percent of the response. Cruz bumped up to second place at 12 percent, while Pence and Abbott tied for the third spot at 8 percent. Haley remained at five percent, and one percent of those surveyed said they would cast a ballot for Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA).

The Neighborhood Research/Media NH poll sampled 475 New Hampshire Republicans between July 5-8 and July 11-13 via a live operator survey, per pollster Rick Shaftan. The margin of error sits at plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, the New Jersey Globe reports.

The CWS/Defend Texas Liberty PAC poll surveyed 1,918 independents and Republicans who cast a ballot in the state’s primaries or runoffs from July 9-10. It has a margin of error of 2.2 percent, and interviews were conducted via “interactive voice calls and SMS messages.”

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