Republicans lead Democrats on the generic congressional ballot by five points, five points lower than the previous week, on a Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday.
While the Republicans look to retake control of Congress in the 2022 midterm elections — which are only 102 days away — after being in the minority for roughly four years, the most recent Rasmussen Reports survey showed that 46 percent of likely U.S. voters would elect a Republican, compared to the 41 percent who said they would vote for the Democrat.
Thus the Republicans only have a five-piont lead, five less then the previous week when they were up by ten pionts. Five percent said they would vote for another candidate, and the other nine percent said they were unsure.
The Republicans’ five-point lead shows that the party has lost a growing momentum in the polls. However, while there is under four months left until the election, there is still time for the generic ballot to move either way before November. But the Republicans have led the generic ballot all year.
Rasmussen had previously noted that in July 2018 — before the Democrats took the House for the first time in eight years — they had a seven-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. Their advantage was slighly up from June 2018 when they held a four-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 45 percent to 41 percent.
But, as the 2018 November midterm election neared, the margins between the Democrats and Republicans became extremely close — Republicans had 46 percent to 45 percent for Democrats.
In this poll, the Republican Party has a ten point advantage with independents over the Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 41 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, while only 31 percent said they would vote for the Democrat candidate.
Additionally, 21 percent of black voters and 42 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today.
For Democrats, 60 percent of black voters and 39 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for them. Compared to last week, Democrats have lost one percent of black voters.
Furthermore, there is a difference in voter intensity between the parties, with 85 percent of Republican voters saying they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate and only 80 percent of Democrats saying the same thing.
The Rasmussen Reports survey was conducted from July 24 to 28 and questioned 2,500 likely U.S. voters. The survey had a two percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.