Rasmussen Poll: Republicans Lead Generic Congressional Ballot by One Point

DAVENPORT, IA - JULY 17: A Republican elephant prop sits in front of the Starlite Ballroom
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The Republican candidates lead the Democrats on the generic congressional ballot by one point, according to Rasmussen Reports’ weekly poll released Friday.

Friday’s poll shows that Republicans still have the upper hand going into the election in 39 days.

The Rasmussen Reports survey showed that the GOP candidates are only one point ahead of the Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, which is one point down from last week.

The poll found that 45 percent of likely U.S. voters said they would elect a Republican, while 44 percent said they would vote for the Democrat. Five percent said they would vote for another candidate, and the other seven said they were unsure.

Nevertheless, the one-point margin with only weeks before the election means the poll has the possibility of shifting either way before November; however, the Republicans have led on the generic ballot all year.

Rasmussen noted that in September 2018 — before Democrats took the House for the first time in eight years — they had a three-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 46 percent to 43 percent. But as the 2018 November midterm election neared, the margins between Democrats and Republicans became extremely close: Republicans had 46 percent to 45 percent for Democrats — which is what the generic ballot is currently showing.

In this poll, the Republican party showed a narrow lead with independents over Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 37 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, while only 38 percent said they would vote for the Democrat candidate.

Additionally, 19 percent of black voters and 40 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today. A Democrat candidate would garner support from 69 percent of black voters and 46 percent of other minority groups.

Furthermore, there is a difference in voter intensity between the parties, with 88 percent of Republican voters saying they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate and only 85 percent of Democrats saying the same thing.

The Rasmussen Reports survey was conducted from September 25 to 29 and questioned 2,500 likely United States voters. The survey had a two percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Write to him at jbliss@breitbart.com or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss.


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