Washington Senate Race Put on ‘Upset Alert’ as Republican Smiley Polls Within Margin of Error

Republican Senate candidate Tiffany Smiley (left) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA). (Ted S. Wa
Ted S. Warren, Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

Washington’s Senate race between 30-year incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and Republican Tiffany Smiley has been placed on “upset alert” by the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Center’s political prognosticating publication, also switched the race from “Safe Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.”

The move in favor of Smiley also comes as the Republican outraised Murray by nearly double in the third quarter, beating her $6 million to $3.3 million. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) also put Smiley’s race on his list of pick-up opportunities.

Smiley is also polling within the margin of error in several polls, including a September Trafalgar poll showing Murray with only a 2.9 percent lead.

More recently, a Friday Co/Efficient poll showed the race in a statistical tie, with Murray leading by 2.8 points — within the poll’s three-point margin of error.

Further, a SurveyUSA poll showed strong support for Smiley among key voter groups.

Not only has Murray’s lead diminished by ten points in the past three months, but Smiley is also winning independent voters by 16 points and Hispanic voters by 15 points.

As crime has become a chief issue in the Washington race, Smiley wins voters who care most about that issue by 45 points.

In addition, the Washington Republican wins on the issue of inflation by 28 points.

Breccan F. Thies is a reporter for Breitbart News. You can follow him on Twitter @BreccanFThies.


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