The issue of abortion has shown to be more popular than the Democrat candidates themselves in elections that have taken place following the U.S. Supreme Court overruling Roe v. Wade this summer.
Richard Hanania, president of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology (CSPI), pointed out in a Wednesday substack blog that since the Dobbs case in June, special elections and polls have shifted in favor of Democrats, with pro-abortion initiatives pulling through at higher percentages.
“In August, Kansas voters rejected a pro-life ballot initiative by 18 points,” Hanania explained. “Democrats clearly believed that Dobbs helped their electoral chances, mentioning abortion in television ads more than any other issue.”
This was a historically bad midterm election for Republicans. What explains it? Abortion was on the ballot in five states, and the pro-choice position beat the Democratic candidate every time, sometimes by extremely large margins. https://t.co/awMD4w2PT5 pic.twitter.com/PNxpMOH5yV
— Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania) November 9, 2022
Hanania reminded readers that “presidents almost always lose seats in midterm elections, and the size of their loss can usually be predicted by the president’s approval rating and the state of the economy.”
Given how much Americans have suffered under the Biden administration within the past two years, one should naturally assume that Tuesday’s midterm elections would result in a “red wave.”
But as of Wednesday afternoon, control of the House and Senate are still yet to be determined, and if Republicans do manage to take the majority, they will have barely squeezed by in both chambers.
“The 2022 midterms are going to go down as a disaster for Republicans,” Hanania affirmed.
The CSPI president added that “the fact that things started to go sour after Dobbs indicates that abortion may have helped Democrats more than any other issue.”
Hanania explained that this can be evidenced by abortion itself being on the ballot last night in five states, “and the pro-choice position universally ran ahead of Democratic candidates, sometimes by a very wide margin.”
He then pointed out the following results:
Michigan: An amendment to put the right to an abortion in the state constitution is going to pass. With 87% of the vote in, it’s leading with 56%, two points ahead of Gretchen Whitmer.
California: A similar measure has also passed. It’s got 65% of the vote, with only 41% of the vote in. For comparison’s sake, the abortion amendment is running seven points ahead of Gavin Newsom.
Vermont: With over 95% of the vote counted, this state has also approved a constitutional amendment enshrining abortion rights. The referendum is currently at 77%, at least nine points ahead of the Democrat in each statewide race.
Kentucky: With 86% of the vote in, a pro-life ballot initiative is only at 47%, and news outlets have called the race for NO. Rand Paul is currently leading his opponent by 33 points within the same electorate.
Montana: An initiative was on the ballot that would have required doctors to provide healthcare to fetuses that survive an abortion attempt. With 80% of the vote in, YES is only at 47%. As far as I know, the race has not yet been called by any outlet. Again, to put this result in context, Montana has two Congressional districts, in which the Republicans are currently up by 4 points and 34 points.
“Of course, people shouldn’t abandon their moral convictions just because they’re unpopular,” Hanania concluded. “The masses can be wrong, and they often are. But conservatives should be clear-eyed about the consequences of whatever path they take.”
You can follow Alana Mastrangelo on Facebook and Twitter at @ARmastrangelo, and on Instagram.
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