Survey: Donald Trump Takes 5-Point Lead in Head-to-Head with Biden

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 10: Former U.S. President Donald Trump leaves Trump Tower to meet with New York Attorney General Letitia James for a civil investigation on August 10, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by James Devaney/GC Images)
James Devaney/GC Images, Alex Wong/Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup, the most recent Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll found.

The survey asked respondents, “If the 2024 election for President were held today and it was between Donald Trump, the Republican and Joe Biden, the Democrat, who would you vote for?”

Overall, 45 percent chose Trump, and 40 percent chose Biden, giving Trump a +5 percent advantage. That reflects a three-point expansion from his lead in November’s survey, which saw Trump besting Biden by two points, or 44 percent to 42 percent. 

However, 14 percent remain unsure — more than enough to swing the lead in either direction. 

Trump also sees a higher favorability than Biden, garnering a 46 percent favorable rating — the highest of every individual listed in the poll. Forty-seven percent view Trump unfavorably, giving him a net negative difference of -1. 

Biden, however, sees a net negative approval of -10, as 51 percent view him unfavorably, and 41 percent view him favorably. 

The situation worsens for Biden as well; Trump continues to outperform him on key issues across the board. 

In January 2021, for instance, Trump enjoyed a 56 percent approval rating on the economy. Nearly two years later, in December 2022, Biden has a 39 percent approval on the economy. 

Similarly, Trump’s January 2021 figures outperform Biden’s on stimulating jobs (56 percent approval to Biden’s 47 percent), fighting terrorism (55 percent approval to Biden’s 45 percent), immigration (52 percent approval to Biden’s 40 percent), foreign affairs (52 percent approval to Biden’s 42 percent), and administering the government (49 percent approval to Biden’s 43 percent).

Biden only sees a positive approval on reacting to the coronavirus (52 percent). 

The survey was taken December 14-16, 2022, among 1,851 registered voters and comes over a month after Trump formally announced his 2024 bid, unveiling his “National Greatness Agenda” during a speech at Mar-a-Lago.

“This is what we call a National Greatness Agenda because our country can be greater than it’s ever been,” Trump said during the 69-minute address.

“Our country is not great anymore. It’s a mess. But our country can be greater than it ever was before. There will be more, much more in the months ahead—and there are so many things we need to do,” he said, warning that “the road ahead of us will not be easy.”

A recent CNN poll found that most Democrats, 59 percent, prefer someone other than Biden to run as the Democrat nominee in 2024, despite Biden’s reported intention of throwing his hat in the ring yet again, setting up a possible rematch between the two.


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