Survey: Trump Leads Potential Opponents by Double-Digits in Hypothetical 2024 GOP Primary

MINDEN, NEVADA - OCTOBER 08: Former U.S. President Donald Trump greets supporters during a campaign rally at Minden-Tahoe Airport on October 08, 2022 in Minden, Nevada. Former U.S. President Donald Trump held a campaign style rally for Nevada GOP candidates ahead of the state's midterm election on November 8th. (Photo …
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Former President Donald J. Trump maintains a double-digit lead over his potential opponents in a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary survey.

Morning Consult’s latest “2024 GOP Primary Tracker” survey, conducted from January 6-8, shows that 46 percent of potential Republican primary voters support Trump in his bid for the presidential nomination. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) sits 13 points back in second place with 33 percent, while nine percent of respondents back former Vice President Mike Pence. No other candidate came close to approaching double-digit support.

Three percent say they would vote for former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), while Former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) each have two percent of the support. Gov. Greg Abbott (R-FL), Sen Tim Scott (R-SC), and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sit at one percent apiece.

There is a very slight change in Trump’s favor compared to another Morning Consult survey published on January 4. That data showed Trump with 45 percent of the respondents’ support, DeSantis at 34 percent, and another eight percent backing Pence.

Among those in the current survey who plan to vote for Trump, 44 percent say Desantis is their second choice, followed by Pence at 20 percent and Cruz at eight percent. Another three percent say Haley is their second pick. Similarly, 35 percent of DeSantis supporters say Trump is their second choice, 15 percent choose Pence, and 11 percent pick Haley. Another nine percent would rally behind Cruz. The portion of the survey concerning first and second choices for the GOP primary includes responses from 4,470 potential primary voters.

Morning Consult also surveyed more than 7,500 registered voters regarding hypothetical 2024 general election matchups between Trump and President Joe Biden, as well as DeSantis and Biden.

In a rematch of the 2020 election, Biden draws 44 percent of the response to Trump’s 41 percent. Another 11 percent say they would back someone else, while four percent are undecided. Trump gained one point on Biden compared to last week when they were at 40 percent and 44 percent, respectively, in Morning Consult’s primary tracker. DeSantis and Biden tie at 43 percent apiece in their head-to-head, while seven percent say they would back another candidate, and another seven percent are undecided.

“Across all times series, results among potential Republican primary voters have an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 1 to 2 percentage points, while results among all voters have an unweighted margin of error of 1 percentage point,” notes senior Morning Consult reporter Eli Yokley. The surveys were conducted between January 6-8.


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