Survey: Nearly Half Believe U.S. Will Go to War with China in Next Five Years

BEIJING, CHINA - AUGUST 01: The Guard of Honor of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PL
VCG/VCG via Getty Images
Hannah Knudsen

Nearly half of voters believe it is likely that the United States will go to war with China in the next five years, a Rasmussen Reports survey released Thursday found.

The survey found a plurality, 48 percent, deeming China an “enemy” of the U.S., while just 11 percent consider it an ally and 36 percent believe it is “somewhere in between.” Most Republicans, 66 percent, consider China an “enemy,” as do 46 percent of independents and one-third of Democrats. 

Fifty-nine percent, overall, view President Biden’s handling of China-related issues as either fair or poor, but of those, 47 percent consider his handling poor.

When asked how likely it is the U.S. will go to war with China “within the next five years,” 48 percent expressed that it is at least “somewhat” likely. More specifically, 30 percent said it is “somewhat likely,” while 18 percent said it is “very likely.”

Just over a quarter, 27 percent, said it is “not very likely,” and 11 percent said it is “not likely at all.” Most Republicans, 58 percent, believe it is at least somewhat likely.

More from Rasmussen Reports:

A majority (57%) of voters under 40 believe it is at least somewhat likely that the United States will go to war against China within the next five years, compared to 46% of those ages 40-64 and 38% of voters 65 and older who share that belief. However, voters under 40 are less likely than their elders to give Biden a poor rating for his handling of issues related to China.

The survey was taken February 5-7, 2023, among 900 likely U.S. voters and has a +/- 3 percent margin of error. It follows the ongoing speculation surrounding the Chinese spy balloon, which made its way across the United States before the U.S. military finally shot it down off the South Carolina coast on Saturday.

In this photo provided by Chad Fish, the remnants of a large balloon drift above the Atlantic Ocean, just off the coast of South Carolina, with a fighter jet and its contrail seen below it, Saturday, Feb. 4, 2023. The downing of the suspected Chinese spy balloon by a missile from an F-22 fighter jet created a spectacle over one of the state’s tourism hubs and drew crowds reacting with a mixture of bewildered gazing, distress and cheering. (Chad Fish via AP)

In this photo provided by Chad Fish, the remnants of a large suspected Chinese spy balloon drift above the Atlantic Ocean, just off the coast of South Carolina, with a fighter jet and its contrail seen below it, Saturday, February 4, 2023. (Chad Fish via AP)

While China attempted to dismiss concerns, contending it was a “civilian airship” researching weather, one senior State Department official said images of the balloon affirmed it “was clearly for intelligence surveillance and inconsistent with the equipment onboard weather balloons.” 

The Biden administration, after allowing the balloon to travel across the United States, is reportedly looking at “broader efforts to expose and address [China’s] larger surveillance activities that pose a threat to our national security, and to our allies and partners.” Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers are demanding answers.

“Our government knew a Chinese military spy balloon was going to enter the airspace over the continental U.S. at least TWO DAYS BEFORE it happened. Yet they failed to act to stop it,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) said, demanding answers:

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