Polls: Donald Trump Leads DeSantis in Florida and Iowa

Former President Donald Trump is leading Gov. Ron DeSantis in Florida in the latest Victory Insights survey, which shows a 25-point swing from DeSantis to Trump head-to-head since November.

In a crowded field in the Sunshine State, Trump takes an eight-point lead over DeSantis, leading 42.9 percent to 34.8 percent.

No other potential candidate comes close, as anti-woke businessman Vivek Ramaswamy comes in third place with 3.5 percent support. Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley came in fourth place with 3.2 percent support, followed by former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) — who announced his presidential bid in April — with 1.4 percent. In the potentially crowded field, 13.9 percent remain undecided:

2024 Florida Republican Primary:

Trump 43% (+8)
DeSantis 35%
Ramaswamy 4%
Haley 3%
Hutchinson 1%
Johnson 0%
.
Head-2-Head:
Trump 47% (+15)
DeSantis 32%

.@VictoryPolling, 1,000 LV, 4/6-8https://t.co/HaNHExFifS

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) April 10, 2023

Trump’s lead expands even greater when DeSantis is taken out of the scenario, leading 65.9 percent to Haley’s 7.8 percent. In that scenario, 22.4 percent remain undecided.

The survey also put Trump and DeSantis head-to-head and found Trump still leading, 46.6 percent to the governor’s 31.8 percent. Notably, this reflects a significant swing in favor of Trump since the survey’s findings in November, when DeSantis led 47.4 percent to Trump’s 36.5 percent.

According to the survey:

In November 2022, our polling showed DeSantis with a 10.9-point lead over Trump in the Sunshine State. Five months later, Trump has retaken the lead in astounding fashion, beating DeSantis by 14.8 points. The number of undecided voters has also inched upward, increasing by 5.5% over the past five months.

More specifically, the number of undecideds has jumped from 16.1 percent to 21.6 percent since November. Trump went from 36.5 percent support to 46.6 percent support, and DeSantis fell from 47.4 percent support to 31.8 percent in that same timeframe.

The survey also found DeSantis having the edge when it comes to likability. The survey asked respondents to rank candidates on a 1-5 scale, with five being very positive. In that scenario, DeSantis leads with a rating of 3.85, followed by Trump with 3.69. While the survey said it is generally good news for the governor, it adds that his camp “should be worried by the fact that the Florida Governor can be more ‘popular’ than Trump in every measure, yet still register far behind him in the polls”:

It reflects a core truth that will heavily influence this race: Donald Trump has a base of diehard supporters who will vote for him no matter what. Even if these voters give both Trump and DeSantis a “5 out of 5” rating, they’ll still vote for Trump every single time. Trump’s strength is not in his broad appeal, but rather in the tight grip he has on a sizeable portion of the electorate.

The survey was taken April 6-8, 2023, among 1,000 likely Republican presidential primary voters and has a +/- 3.1 percent margin of error. The results are significant for Trump, as recent Florida-centric surveys show DeSantis taking a slight edge in the Sunshine State. The latest Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc., survey, for example, shows DeSantis leading Trump with support from less than half of respondents — 44 percent to 39 percent.