Exclusive: Turning Point Action Identifies 4.5 Million ‘Disengaged’ GOP Voters Across 10 Battleground States

LAS VEGAS, Nevada — Turning Point Action, the political arm of conservative movement leader Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA, has identified more than 4.5 million so-called “disengaged” Republican voters in several battleground states around the country, enough to more than swing the 2024 presidential election’s results from 2020.

The group is holding its first-ever Restoring National Confidence event at the Planet Hollywood Resort and Casino on the Las Vegas Strip on Monday and Tuesday, flying in county GOP chairs from 75 of the top 100 battleground counties across the country. The event—contrasting the Republican National Committee (RNC) winter meetings, which will happen from January 30 to February 3 in the same city—is designed, as Breitbart News has reported, to show things the event organizers, which include some of the 168 members of the RNC, should be doing. The counter event’s name—Restoring National Confidence—even trolls the RNC with the same acronym as the national Republican Party committee.

“It’s a turnout game,” Kirk, who leads Turning Point, told Breitbart News. “It’s the exact opposite of what people would have believed. I’m very, very focused and have been for quite some time and will continue to be on these numbers. I believe it’s all going to come down to three states. Trump is going to win Iowa. He’ll win Ohio. He’ll win North Carolina by a little bit—it’s not going to be a blowout. He’ll win Florida by a million votes, so I don’t think Trump should even actively campaign in Iowa, Ohio, and Florida. It’s got to be all in on Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Georgia, I’m feeling better and better about. Republicans are really coming home. They’re outpacing Democrats 1.5 to one in voter registration. Arizona, I think we’re beginning to get our act together. We’re headquartered there. We have a great new state party chair who really knows what she’s doing. Wisconsin, I’m worried about. The problem is, when I talk to some of these people, they say, ‘Oh my goodness, maybe Pennsylvania.’ I’m not that bullish on Pennsylvania. It’s a big state. If Pennsylvania falls, that means Wisconsin also falls. Look, it’s a turnout election. I really believe that, and it comes down to: Can we really turn out another 50,000 to 60,000 more Republican voters?”

Interestingly, here on Monday morning, the county-level GOP chairs from around the nation were provided with binders that include precinct-specific data in their counties as well as state-level data on what Turning Point Action’s Tyler Bowyer—also the Republican National Committeeman from Arizona—has deemed “low propensity GOP voters.” The definition, loosely applied, is basically voters who have been identified as likely to vote for the Republican for president who did not vote in the 2016 or 2020 presidential elections.

“This is what the left has targeted on their side,” Bowyer told the attendees gathered here. “They are obsessed with what we call low-propensity or low-information or less-likely or disengaged voters. We’re calling these disengaged voters. Why? I don’t care if they voted in 2022 or 2018, or any other time. What I know is they didn’t vote in 2016 and 2020, and that is scary. That is a scary person, whoever does that.”

“We have to try to squeeze out as many votes as possible to throw a monkey wrench into the left’s Moneyball game,” Bowyer added in his remarks to those gathered. “This is why we’ve developed our state alliances. If you’re in your state, you can work for the Turning Point Action team, and we will give you every resource we possibly can—starting with what’s in your binders. So I want to direct your attention–and I want to give a huge shoutout to our data team—every single one of you, in your binder that you received that’s under there, is what’s called a Bible for your county. You should have a state version for your state if you’re one of the critical states, and you should have one for your county. We have completely broken down the data on where the most low-propensity voters exist in your state and mapped it out down to the precinct and ward level. So, in your binder right now for your specific county exists a breakdown from top to bottom of what we consider ‘super chase’ precincts. What that means is that when we use that term—and some of us and our staff the next few days, you’ll hear us frequently talk about it—but what a super chase precinct is is a precinct where, through our methodology over 2016 and 2020, where there are 200 or more registered Republican voters or identified Republican voters who did not show up in that precinct.”

The numbers, which Turning Point Action provided to Breitbart News exclusively, are stunning. Across ten battleground states, the group identified 4,571,210 disengaged GOP voters who did not vote in 2016 or 2020. The ten states counted are Florida, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada. While Trump won Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina in 2020, Democrat President Joe Biden took the other six states—and in each one, the disengaged GOP voters total was more than the margin of Biden’s victory over Trump.

For instance, in Pennsylvania, the margin between Trump and Biden was 80,555. The number of disengaged GOP voters was, per Turning Point Action’s analysis, 589,350—more than seven times the margin. In Michigan, the margin was 154,188 votes by which Biden beat Trump. Turning Point Action found 490,630 disengaged GOP voters there, more than three times the margin.

It was even more profound in places like Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia. In Georgia, the margin was 11,779—and the number of disengaged GOP voters was, per Turning Point Action, 539,480—more than 45 times the margin. In Arizona, the margin between Trump and Biden was 10,457—and Turning Point Action identified 286,440 disengaged GOP voters there, more than 27 times the margin. In Wisconsin, 20,682 votes separated Trump and Biden—and Turning Point identified 542,720 disengaged GOP voters there. That is more than 26 times the margin.

In Nevada, where this conference is taking place, the margin between Biden and Trump in 2020 was 33,596 votes—and Turning Point Action has identified 140,540 disengaged GOP voters in the Silver State, more than four times the margin.

Turning Point Action is doing a major “ballot chasing” program across those three states—Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia—designed to get these people to vote.

“It’s a little wonky, but we can’t touch the ballot,” Kirk said when asked to explain what ballot chasing is. “Ballot harvesting is illegal in these states. We actually honor the law. We follow the law—the bad guys, they break the law. That’s actually ballot harvesting, but we don’t touch the ballot. We understand there’s voting month, and then we find the people who are low-propensity voters—we’re not interested in the people showing up anyway. That’s one of the problems with the RNC—the RNC is focused on moving people who already vote on election day into the category of early voting. That’s not a new vote; it’s just the same votes being transferred into a different column. So we try to go out there and find these low-propensity voters and try to get them to submit their ballot in that 30-day period, and we do that through a variety of ways. We’ll have 300 full-time people in Arizona and Wisconsin. It will be, to be my knowledge, the largest deployment of full-time field staff in the history of modern conservative politics.”