Lawfare Failure: Trump Commands 50 Percent Support, National Lead over Biden

Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rall
AP Photo/John Locher

Former President Donald Trump maintains an edge over President Joe Biden nationally after being convicted in the business records trial in blue Manhattan, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll.

The poll, conducted between Wednesday and Friday, finds that exactly half of likely voters, including leaners, back Trump for the presidency. He sits 1 point ahead of Biden at 49 percent, while just 1 percent say they would vote for a third-party candidate.

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They are neck and neck with independents; Biden takes 50 percent of the demographic to Trump’s 48 percent. Each candidate garners 94 percent of support among their party’s base and 5 percent from the rival party.

Biden holds a one-point edge among likely voters in battleground states at 50 percent to 49 percent, CBS News notes.

Trump supporters are more enthusiastic than Biden supporters. Of Biden backers, 69 percent say their support for him is very strong, and they have “decided” he is their candidate. In comparison, 78 percent of Trump voters have very strong support for the 45th president and have “decided” they will vote for him.

Just under a quarter of Biden supporters say their support is strong and they “probably won’t” switch their support, while another four percent say they “might still change” their minds, and two percent of his supporters expect to change their minds at some point.

Of the outstanding Trump supporters who have not “decided” they are voting for him, 18 percent say their support is “strong,” and they are unlikely to change their minds, while four percent have “somewhat strong” support for him but “might still” switch candidates.

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Ron Pragides via Storyful, @GDawg8 via Storyful

Further cementing the differences in enthusiasm between the two candidates is the underlying motivation among respondents to vote for either of them. More than half of Biden supporters, 54 percent, say their vote would be in opposition to Trump, while just 27 percent say they would vote for Biden because they “like” him.

Conversely, 52 percent of Trump backers say they would vote for him because they “like” him, and 34 percent say they would do so to oppose Biden.

What is more, 51 percent of respondents see the election as a comparison between the candidates, whereas 22 percent view it as a judgment on Biden and 26 percent perceive it as a judgment on Trump.

The poll sampled 1,615 registered voters, including 1,359 likely voters. The margin of error for likely voters was not specified, though it was ± 3.8 percentage points for registered voters.

Trump’s one-point overall edge is consistent with national Emerson College and Morning Consult polls taken after his conviction. An Emerson College Polling survey, taken June 4-5, found Trump registered at 46 percent of backing and Biden at 45 percent among registered voters. The May 31- June 2 Morning Consult poll of registered voters had Trump at 44 percent and Biden at 43 percent.


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