When two Major League Teams combine to win over 64 percent of their games one of them tends to win the World Series—but the new Westgate World Series Odds indicate the odds are 2-to-1 that someone other than the 63-29 Dodgers or 61-30 Astros do it this season.
Since Major League baseball expanded to divisions in 1969, only the 2001 Seattle Mariners (116-46) and Oakland Athletics (102-60) combined for that good a mark only to have neither win the World Series. The 1998 Yankees, 1995 Braves, 1970 Orioles and 1969 Mets won the title after being part of a duo that good:
| Year | Team – World Series Res | Won | Lost | top 2 W% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | New York Yankees W | 114 | 48 | 67.90% |
| 1998 | Atlanta Braves | 106 | 56 | 67.90% |
| 2001 | Seattle Mariners | 116 | 46 | 67.28% |
| 2001 | Oakland Athletics | 102 | 60 | 67.28% |
| 1995 | Cleveland Indians L | 100 | 44 | 65.97% |
| 1995 | Atlanta Braves W | 90 | 54 | 65.97% |
| 1970 | Baltimore Orioles W | 108 | 54 | 64.81% |
| 1970 | Cincinnati Reds L | 102 | 60 | 64.81% |
| 1969 | Baltimore Orioles L | 109 | 53 | 64.51% |
| 1969 | New York Mets W | 100 | 62 | 64.51% |
| 2017 | Los Angeles Dodgers ? | 63 | 29 | 64.24% |
| 2017 | Houston Astros ? | 61 | 30 | 64.24% |
The records of the 28 duos that accomplished that feat prior to 1969 appear here—led by the Pirates beating out the Cubs in a 1909 season that saw the two combine to win more than 70 percent of their games.
When you add the fact that the Astros ace Dallas Keuchel (9-0, 1.67 ERA) missed 10 of his scheduled 21 starts to date but should return for the balance of the system, it seems the Dodgers and Astros match up with the other five great duos very well.
However, when you translate the Vegas odds into percentages, and then take out the 57% Vegas gets as a mark up, you see that this book actually gives the Dodgers a 21 percent shot at the title (3-to-1 odds is 33%, divided by 1.57 to remove bookies margin), and the Astros a 14 percent shot for a total of 35%. Basically the odds divide the scenarios into three almost equal likelihoods; 1) the Dodgers or Astros win, 2) one of the next best three teams wins with Red Sox 13%, Nationals 11% and Indians 9% adding up to another 33%, or 3) or an equal chance that one of the other 25 teams makes the surprise run.
Here are all the odds.
| TEAM | Listed -1 | Converted | Real Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 3-to-1 | 33% | 21% |
| Houston Astros | 4.5 | 22% | 14% |
| Boston Red Sox | 5 | 20% | 13% |
| Washington Nationals | 6 | 17% | 11% |
| Cleveland Indians | 7 | 14% | 9% |
| Chicago Cubs | 12 | 8% | 5% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 18 | 6% | 4% |
| Colorado Rockies | 20 | 5% | 3% |
| New York Yankees | 20 | 5% | 3% |
| Kansas City Royals | 20 | 5% | 3% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 25 | 4% | 3% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 30 | 3% | 2% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 50 | 2% | 1% |
| Seattle Mariners | 60 | 2% | 1% |
| Texas Rangers | 60 | 2% | 1% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 100 | 1% | 1% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 100 | 1% | 1% |
| Atlanta Braves | 100 | 1% | 1% |
| Minnesota Twins | 100 | 1% | 1% |
| New York Mets | 100 | 1% | 1% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 100 | 1% | 1% |
| Miami Marlins | 200 | 1% | 0% |
| Chicago White Sox | 200 | 1% | 0% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 200 | 1% | 0% |
| Detroit Tigers | 300 | 0% | 0% |
| San Francisco Giants | 500 | 0% | 0% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 500 | 0% | 0% |
| Oakland Athletics | 500 | 0% | 0% |
| San Diego Padres | 2000 | 0% | 0% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 9999 | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 157% | 100% |
The nine teams rounded to a 0 percent chance, actually calculate to a combined 1.6 percent chance at the title, according to Westgate.
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