Vegas: Only 35% Chance Either Astros or Dodgers Win Despite Historic Seasons

Carlos Correa of the Houston Astros is congratulated by Marwin Gonzalez after hitting a solo home run in the second inning during MLB game action against the Toronto Blue Jays July 9, 2017
Getty/AFP/File Tom Szczerbowski

When two Major League Teams combine to win over 64 percent of their games one of them tends to win the World Series—but the new Westgate World Series Odds indicate the odds are 2-to-1 that someone other than the 63-29 Dodgers or 61-30 Astros do it this season.

Since Major League baseball expanded to divisions in 1969, only the 2001 Seattle Mariners (116-46) and Oakland Athletics (102-60) combined for that good a mark only to have neither win the World Series. The 1998 Yankees, 1995 Braves, 1970 Orioles and 1969 Mets won the title after being part of a duo that good:

Year Team – World Series Res Won Lost top 2 W%
1998 New York Yankees  W  114 48 67.90%
1998 Atlanta Braves 106 56 67.90%
2001 Seattle Mariners 116 46 67.28%
2001 Oakland Athletics 102 60 67.28%
1995 Cleveland Indians  L 100 44 65.97%
1995 Atlanta Braves  W  90 54 65.97%
1970 Baltimore Orioles  W  108 54 64.81%
1970 Cincinnati Reds  L 102 60 64.81%
1969 Baltimore Orioles  L 109 53 64.51%
1969 New York Mets  W  100 62 64.51%
2017 Los Angeles Dodgers ? 63 29 64.24%
2017 Houston Astros ? 61 30 64.24%

The records of the 28 duos that accomplished that feat prior to 1969 appear here—led by the Pirates beating out the Cubs in a 1909 season that saw the two combine to win more than 70 percent of their games.

When you add the fact that the Astros ace Dallas Keuchel (9-0, 1.67 ERA) missed 10 of his scheduled 21 starts to date but should return for the balance of the system, it seems the Dodgers and Astros match up with the other five great duos very well.

However, when you translate the Vegas odds into percentages, and then take out the 57% Vegas gets as a mark up, you see that this book actually gives the Dodgers a 21 percent shot at the title (3-to-1 odds is 33%, divided by 1.57 to remove bookies margin), and the Astros a 14 percent shot for a total of 35%. Basically the odds divide the scenarios into three almost equal likelihoods; 1) the Dodgers or Astros win, 2) one of the next best three teams wins with Red Sox 13%, Nationals 11% and Indians 9% adding up to another 33%, or 3) or an equal chance that one of the other 25 teams makes the surprise run.

Here are all the odds.

TEAM Listed -1 Converted Real Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers 3-to-1 33% 21%
Houston Astros 4.5 22% 14%
Boston Red Sox 5 20% 13%
Washington Nationals 6 17% 11%
Cleveland Indians 7 14% 9%
Chicago Cubs 12 8% 5%
Arizona Diamondbacks 18 6% 4%
Colorado Rockies 20 5% 3%
New York Yankees 20 5% 3%
Kansas City Royals 20 5% 3%
St. Louis Cardinals 25 4% 3%
Milwaukee Brewers 30 3% 2%
Tampa Bay Rays 50 2% 1%
Seattle Mariners 60 2% 1%
Texas Rangers 60 2% 1%
Los Angeles Angels 100 1% 1%
Pittsburgh Pirates 100 1% 1%
Atlanta Braves 100 1% 1%
Minnesota Twins 100 1% 1%
New York Mets 100 1% 1%
Toronto Blue Jays 100 1% 1%
Miami Marlins 200 1% 0%
Chicago White Sox 200 1% 0%
Baltimore Orioles 200 1% 0%
Detroit Tigers 300 0% 0%
San Francisco Giants 500 0% 0%
Cincinnati Reds 500 0% 0%
Oakland Athletics 500 0% 0%
San Diego Padres 2000 0% 0%
Philadelphia Phillies 9999 0% 0%
Total 157% 100%

The nine teams rounded to a 0 percent chance, actually calculate to a combined 1.6 percent chance at the title, according to Westgate.

.

Please let us know if you're having issues with commenting.