Rand Survey: Nearly 10 Percent of Donald Trump Primary Voters Backed Obama in 2012

Nearly 10 percent of primary voters who are supporting Donald Trump are crossovers from President Barack Obama in 2012, according to a new study.

The RAND Corporation Preidential Election Panel survey shows that in “December 2015, 8.6% of all Trump supporters (among those who planned to vote for him in a Republican primary/caucus) said they voted for Obama in 2012,” said sociologist Michael Pollard.

“In March 2016, 7.9% of all Trump supporters (among those who planned to vote for him in a Republican primary/caucus) said they voted for Obama in 2012,” Pollard added.

Still, “It’s also possible that some of the former Obama [pro-Trump] voters will migrate back to the Democratic candidate as the election draws closer,” Pollard explained.

Pollard says the latest data is from March and the next wave of crossover information will come in July, after the Republican National Convention and the Democratic National Convention, where the nominees from both parties are formally announced.

Trump has collected some of his rivals’ supporters as well, according to Pollard. Rand’s March data also showed how Trump has won support from other GOP candidates since December. By March, Trump’s supporters comprised:

  • 2.1 percent who had backed Jeb Bush in December. They were 15.8 percent of Bush’s December supporters.
  • 2.6 percent who had backed Sen. Marco Rubio, comprising 12.3 percent of Rubio’s supporters when he suspended his campaign during the March survey.
  • 7.4 percent who had backed Sen. Ted Cruz, who comprised 20.4 percent of Cruz’s supporters.
  • 7.1 percent who had backed Ben Carson, who comprised 31.9 percent of Carson’s supporters. Also, 25.6 percent of Carson’s supporters went to Cruz, the next most popular choice for Carson supporters.
  • Also, 1.3 percent of Hillary Clinton’s December supporters were crossovers to Trump in March.


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