Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama by two points (49%-47%) in a D+7 poll of likely Virginia voters conducted by Wenzel Strategies, a firm that polls for conservatives and whose polls have had a high level of accuracy during the last election cycle.
The poll's partisan breakdown was: 46% Democrat, 39% Republican, and 15% independent.
And in what may be the poll's most significant finding, Obama only leads Romney by four points in vote-rich Northern Virginia. Obama needs to run up his margins in Northern Virginia, which is more liberal than the rest of the state, and a four-point lead there will not be enough on election day for him to prevail. In comparison, Tim Kaine, the Democrat running for Senate against Republican George Allen, leads Allen by 11 points in Northern Virginia, outperforming Obama by 7 points.
Romney also wins 16% of Democrats while Obama only wins 9% of Republicans, and Romney leads by 16 points among independents (53%-37%).
Wenzel Strategies surveyed 1000 likely voters in Virginia on October 19-20 and the poll's margin of error is +/- 3.07 percentage points.