There's no question that nationally and in the ever-important states that swing, Governor Mitt Romney is not only tied or ahead but also enjoying a real surge after his stunning Wednesday night debate victory over President Obama. The Obama campaign is panicking, the Romney campaign is emboldened, and even the media has been forced to declare the race a toss-up.
Moreover, every historical measurement, from unemployment to income to gas prices, spell trouble for the incumbent. Therefore, there's absolutely no question in the minds of any objective person, left or right, that the right race is up for grabs and the momentum is with the GOP nominee.
And yet, in the middle of it all, we have one desperate, bleary-eyed ObamaTruther: Five Thirty Eight's Nate Silver.
From his lofty perch at the New York Times, it is apparently Silver's job to -- not eflect reality -- but to use some super-duper secret sauce that runs Objective Reality through a left-wing number cruncher, and sprinkles it with happy dust in order to reassure bubbled liberals everywhere that Obama's going to be okay.
At least I'm assuming that's Nate Silver's raison d'etre, because there's absolutely no other way to explain how any intellectually honest analyst who's crunching the latest poll numbers (which Silver is) could possibly have Romney's chances of victory sitting at … 25.2%.
Earlier this morning, Silver spent over 1500 words explaining that number. I read it all. It makes absolutely no sense. Unless…
You see, Silver's over-arching job really isn't to analyze numbers; and in all seriousness, it's not to make Upper Westside liberals feel better (though that's certainly a by-product). What Silver really is, is a Narrative Creator. Silver poses as an objective independent analyst and then uses an impressive-looking but completely ridiculous number-crunching formula as a way to keep things looking up for Obama.
Perception is crucial in politics, and if Silver can always be there for the media, the media has something to look to so they can always be there for Obama. Like almost everything else the media does, it's all a hustle, a scam, a juiced-number conspiracy that allows the media to not write stories about Obama The Loser -- which would be devastating.
And it doesn’t matter that today Nate Silver jumped the shark with his ridiculous 25.2% prediction of a Romney victory. Because Silver doesn’t exist in order to give anyone intelligent analysis. He's there to make Obama boosterism look intelligent and thoughtful and fact-based, no matter how ridiculous and counter-intuitive and fantastic the end result.
And yet, people take Nate Silver seriously and still will even after today. Part of it is willful ignorance; part of it is out of necessity to boost Obama; and part of it are those dumb enough to still be impressed by the mantle of the New York Times.
But make no mistake, Nate Silver is pure snake oil salesman, no better than a Politico or BuzzFeed Politics. Actually, he's closer to these lying media fact-checkers that hide behind manufactured facts.
The only difference is that Silver's spin and bias and lies of omission are hidden behind math.
Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC