In 2016, especially after President Barack Obama’s executive amnesty, Democrats may be on even thinner ice with white voters, especially white working-class males.
Though the mainstream media wants to gin up the narrative that Republicans have trouble winning minorities, the 2014 midterm elections again showed, as Politico noted, “that Democrats have their own significant demographic vulnerability: working-class white voters. Republicans won white voters without a college degree by 30 points, 64 percent to 34 percent, according to exit polls, equal to their margin in the wave election of 2010.” In addition, “support for President Barack Obama among working-class whites has dropped 8 points since 2010.”
Political analyst Charlie Cook told the outlet that “Democrats have chosen to focus on issues that the liberal base of the party really likes, but the working-class person in West Virginia or Arkansas or Louisiana or Alaska doesn’t necessarily identify with.”
“The challenge that the Democratic Party has in parts of the country appears to be even more formidable than it was two years ago,” he added.
But Obama is likely to swerve even more to the left after Democrats in red states like Mark Pryor, Kay Hagan, Mark Begich and Mary Landrieu lost their reelection bids in Arkansas, North Carolina, Arkansas, and Louisiana, respectively.
In his end-of-year press conference, Obama indicated that he was liberated because he no longer had to worry about the reelection prospects of Democrats from conservative states. Obama and Democrats are gambling that minorities who powered Obama into the White House will continue to be galvanized in presidential elections.
If minorities do not turn out with the same level of enthusiasm when Obama is not at the top of the ticket, though, Republicans have opportunities to win the White House without getting massive increases in the Hispanic vote.
The New York Times recently noted that Republicans can win the White House without supporting massive amnesty legislation because “improving among white Northern voters is the core of the G.O.P. route to victory, regardless of whether the party makes gains with Hispanic voters.”
“If the Republicans can’t make gains among white Northerners and hold Mr. Romney’s share of white Southerners, it just won’t really matter whether they receive 25 or 40 percent of the Hispanic vote,” the Times concluded.
A recent Washington Post analysis also determined that “upcoming elections… won’t put the GOP at much of a disadvantage” even if the party oppose amnesty legislation because there will see larger numbers of older voters.”
As Breitbart News has noted, though,”older white voters and working-class voters may stay at home if they are opposed to a Republican presidential candidate whose stance on amnesty is no different than Obama’s. In the end, perhaps that is what Obama and Democrats are gambling on occurring.”