Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump has cut Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton’s lead in the national McClatchy-Marist poll from a 15% deficit in August to just 7% in the latest McClatchy-Marist poll released Friday.
In a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Clinton, McClatchy has Clinton leading 48%-41%. In a four-way race including Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party Candidate Dr. Jill Stein, Clinton leads narrows even further against Trump 45%-39% with Johnson getting 10% and Stein getting 4%.
The sample of likely voters used by McClatchy shows that it is significantly weighted towards Democrats: 36% of the likely voters sampled identified as Democrats with 26% identifying themselves as “strong Democrats.” Republicans make up just 32% of the sample with only 20% of those identifying as “strong Republicans.”
Even with the Democrat weighted McClatchy-Marist poll included, the Real Clear Politics average of national head-to-head polling shows Clinton with just a 3% lead that narrows to just more than 2% when the third party candidates are included.
The McClatchy-Marist poll shows Clinton leading Trump on issues of immigration, trade, and terrorism but shows Clinton lagging behind Trump on issues of honesty and trust. “On the question of which candidate is honest and trustworthy, Trump, 44%, outperforms Clinton, 36%”
The McClatchy-Marist poll also shows a significant enthusiasm gap between Trump supporters and Clinton supporters, which caused the director of the poll to question whether Hillary voters would turn out on election day. “Hillary Clinton has established a lead, but Donald Trump’s supporters are more committed to him,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Digging deeper, African Americans, Latinos, and women are rallying around Clinton’s candidacy. She also has the backing of young people, but the big question for her campaign is, ‘Will voters under 30 turn out?’”