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FBS Scoreboard: Baylor Comes Back, USC Upsets Arizona, ND Squeaks to Victory

FBS Scoreboard: Baylor Comes Back, USC Upsets Arizona, ND Squeaks to Victory

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After the release of last week’s Pythagorean Ratings critics jumped on how Michigan could be ranked so high (#71) and Penn State could be ranked so low (#79). Luckily the two teams that were the focus on the criticism happened to be playing, leading me to comment, “Looks like all of you who commented on these two should be overjoyed at the +1.5 points you get for going with the Nittany Lions this weekend! Good luck.” In fact, the ratings held up and critics fell silent as Michigan beat Penn State 18-13, leading to the new rankings and scoreboard for all 128 teams below.

The first line reveals that the new 89th ranked team is Air Force of the Mountain West Conference (MWC). They lost 16-32 to Utah State this week after a projected spread of -3.1. Because their 16-point loss was worst than the spread, their dropped by -2.4 points, meaning that now if they played the other 127 teams their projected average score would be a 29.6-38.6 loss, and they would win 32.8% of their games.

Paragraph for the stat nerds only: The amount of the improvement of a team’s projected score each week is determined by the square root of their margin of victory (-4.0 for Air Force this week) minus the square root of their spread before the game (-1.6 for Air Force -3.1 spread this week) to get the total improvement (-2.4 for Air Force). Neither figure can be greater than 5.0 or lower than -5.0 – or a 25-point margin. Once the average offensive and defensive scoring figure is adjusted, the winning percentage is determined by taking both to the power of 2.7 and then dividing the resultant offensive figure by the sum of the offensive and defensive factors.

Here are all 128 teams in alphabetical order: 

Now Team Conf Score Opp Spread Improve Off Def New%
89 Air Force MWC 16-32 Utah St -3.1 -2.4 29.6 38.6 32.8%
102 Akron MAC 29-19 Miami OH 20.5 -1.4 19.6 29.3 25.3%
6 Alabama SEC 14-13 Arkansas 7.9 -1.8 39.4 16.6 91.2%
123 Appalachian St SBC v FCS 48-55 Liberty -14.0 2.7 15.7 40.4 7.2%
37 Arizona P12 26-28 USC -8.4 1.5 32.9 23.4 71.5%
41 Arizona St P12   idle 0.0 0.0 34.7 26.0 68.6%
19 Arkansas SEC 13-14 Alabama -7.9 1.8 36.9 20.9 82.2%
85 Arkansas St SBC 52-10 Georgia St 18.7 0.7 23.5 30.0 34.1%
113 Army Ind vs CUSA 21-41 Rice -6.1 -2.0 24.8 42.5 18.9%
10 Auburn SEC 23-38 Mississippi St 2.2 -5.2 44.2 22.9 85.6%
109 Ball St MAC 42-38 W Michigan 10.4 -1.2 20.5 33.7 20.7%
4 Baylor B12 61-58 TCU 9.2 -1.3 51.1 20.1 92.5%
57 Boise St MWC   idle 0.0 0.0 30.3 27.3 57.0%
43 Boston College ACC 30-14 NC State -1.0 5.0 35.9 27.6 67.1%
76 Bowling Green MAC 31-13 Ohio -2.2 5.7 20.6 23.1 42.5%
124 Buffalo MAC 27-37 E Michigan -0.5 -2.5 14.7 40.8 6.0%
52 BYU Ind v AAC 24-31 UCF 9.9 -4.1 33.9 29.8 58.6%
86 C Michigan MAC 34-17 N Illinois -17.8 8.3 23.5 30.2 33.6%
82 California P12 7-31 Washington -7.3 -2.2 29.9 35.1 39.3%
88 Cincinnati AAC v ACC 34-55 Miami FL -9.0 -1.6 23.0 29.9 33.0%
11 Clemson ACC 23-17 Louisville 3.8 0.5 45.5 23.8 85.2%
98 Colorado P12   idle 0.0 0.0 21.4 30.4 28.0%
50 Colorado St MWC 31-24 Nevada -3.2 4.4 33.5 28.1 61.7%
111 Connecticut AAC 35-24 Tulane -9.1 6.3 19.8 32.9 20.3%
32 Duke ACC 31-25 Georgia Tech -7.7 5.2 39.4 27.0 73.5%
121 E Michigan MAC 37-27 Buffalo 0.5 2.4 17.4 43.4 7.8%
25 East Carolina AAC 28-17 South Florida 25.0 -1.7 39.1 24.5 77.9%
95 FL Atlantic CUSA   idle 0.0 0.0 20.8 29.0 29.0%
47 Florida SEC 27-30 LSU -3.2 0.1 24.3 19.5 64.4%
75 Florida Intl CUSA 13-16 UT San Antonio -7.6 1.1 25.4 28.3 42.8%
1 Florida St ACC 38-20 Syracuse 22.3 -0.5 51.8 18.1 94.5%
97 Fresno St MWC 27-30 UNLV 7.9 -4.5 28.5 40.1 28.4%
100 Ga Southern SBC 42-21 Idaho 20.5 0.1 20.7 30.3 26.4%
8 Georgia SEC 34-0 Missouri -5.0 7.2 43.5 19.2 90.1%
126 Georgia St SBC 10-52 Arkansas St -18.7 -0.7 12.8 44.8 3.3%
49 Georgia Tech ACC 25-31 Duke 7.7 -5.2 36.3 30.2 62.2%
84 Hawaii MWC 38-28 Wyoming 15.4 -2.2 28.6 36.5 34.2%
58 Houston AAC 28-24 Memphis -4.4 4.1 27.6 25.3 55.8%
125 Idaho SBC 21-42 Ga Southern -20.5 -0.1 16.6 48.9 5.1%
71 Illinois B10 28-38 Wisconsin -24.6 1.8 30.8 33.7 43.8%
59 Indiana B10 29-45 Iowa -10.4 -0.8 36.3 34.0 54.4%
28 Iowa B10 45-29 Indiana 10.4 0.8 26.6 17.7 74.9%
61 Iowa St B12 v MAC 37-30 Toledo 18.2 -1.6 31.0 29.6 53.1%
106 Kansas B12 20-27 Oklahoma St -25.0 2.4 18.3 29.2 22.2%
17 Kansas St B12   idle 0.0 0.0 33.0 18.0 83.7%
128 Kent MAC 17-40 Massachusetts 0.4 -5.4 7.4 31.8 2.0%
38 Kentucky SEC v SBC 48-14 ULM 24.6 0.0 35.4 25.7 70.4%
62 Louisiana Tech CUSA   idle 0.0 0.0 34.3 33.3 52.1%
24 Louisville ACC 17-23 Clemson -3.8 -0.4 37.5 23.4 78.2%
23 LSU SEC 30-27 Florida 3.2 -0.1 37.1 22.5 79.3%
48 Marshall CUSA 49-25 Middle Tenn St 9.3 1.9 41.8 34.3 62.9%
27 Maryland B10   idle 0.0 0.0 32.1 21.2 75.4%
115 Massachusetts MAC 40-17 Kent -0.4 5.4 17.2 31.4 16.5%
70 Memphis AAC 24-28 Houston 4.4 -4.1 27.0 29.5 44.1%
35 Miami FL ACC v AAC 55-34 Cincinnati 9.0 1.6 38.1 27.0 71.8%
127 Miami OH MAC 19-29 Akron -20.5 1.3 11.0 38.9 3.2%
64 Michigan B10 18-13 Penn St 2.6 0.6 26.0 27.3 46.7%
7 Michigan St B10 45-31 Purdue 19.1 -0.6 31.1 13.2 91.0%
78 Middle Tenn St CUSA 25-49 Marshall -9.3 -1.9 29.3 33.3 41.4%
40 Minnesota B10 24-17 Northwestern 6.3 0.1 28.2 20.9 69.1%
2 Mississippi SEC 35-20 Texas A&M -2.2 5.4 43.1 15.9 93.7%
3 Mississippi St SEC 38-23 Auburn -2.2 5.4 40.0 14.8 93.6%
33 Missouri SEC 0-34 Georgia 5.0 -7.2 35.9 24.7 73.2%
92 N Illinois MAC 17-34 C Michigan 17.8 -8.3 26.0 35.6 29.9%
69 Navy Ind v FCS 51-14 VMI 25.0 0.0 27.3 29.5 44.7%
74 NC State ACC 14-30 Boston College 1.0 -5.0 30.7 34.1 43.0%
21 Nebraska B10   idle 0.0 0.0 34.9 20.4 81.0%
72 Nevada MWC 24-31 Colorado St 3.2 -4.4 32.0 35.1 43.8%
99 New Mexico MWC 14-24 San Diego St -13.4 0.5 24.8 35.3 27.8%
120 New Mexico St SBC 24-41 Troy -3.2 -2.3 17.0 41.3 8.3%
56 North Carolina ACC v Ind 43-50 Notre Dame -22.5 2.1 32.7 29.2 57.7%
90 North Texas CUSA 21-56 UAB 6.6 -7.6 25.1 33.4 31.6%
55 Northwestern B10 17-24 Minnesota -6.3 -0.1 25.2 22.3 58.2%
16 Notre Dame Ind v ACC 50-43 North Carolina 22.5 -2.1 38.4 20.9 83.9%
116 Ohio MAC 13-31 Bowling Green 2.2 -5.7 17.7 34.2 14.5%
13 Ohio St B10   idle 0.0 0.0 40.0 21.3 84.6%
14 Oklahoma B12 31-26 Texas 13.9 -1.5 42.8 23.2 83.9%
15 Oklahoma St B12 27-20 Kansas 25.0 -2.4 36.6 19.8 83.9%
93 Old Dominion CUSA 35-42 UTEP -5.8 -0.2 29.8 41.2 29.5%
5 Oregon P12 42-30 UCLA 1.7 2.2 46.6 19.2 91.6%
53 Oregon St P12   idle 0.0 0.0 29.7 26.2 58.4%
81 Penn St B10 13-18 Michigan -2.6 -0.6 24.3 28.2 40.1%
79 Pittsburgh ACC   idle 0.0 0.0 29.7 33.8 41.3%
73 Purdue B10 31-45 Michigan St -19.1 0.7 24.9 27.4 43.6%
77 Rice CUSA v Ind 41-21 Army 6.1 2.0 26.9 30.4 41.7%
51 Rutgers B10   idle 0.0 0.0 31.0 26.3 60.8%
66 San Diego St MWC 24-14 New Mexico 13.4 -0.5 26.6 28.6 45.1%
87 San Jose St MWC   idle 0.0 0.0 28.9 37.2 33.4%
105 SMU AAC   idle 0.0 0.0 20.8 32.4 23.2%
110 South Alabama SBC   idle 0.0 0.0 17.7 29.3 20.4%
22 South Carolina SEC   idle 0.0 0.0 35.3 21.1 80.1%
94 South Florida AAC 17-28 East Carolina -25.0 1.7 22.3 30.9 29.3%
122 Southern Miss CUSA   idle 0.0 0.0 17.3 44.4 7.3%
9 Stanford P12 34-17 Washington St 14.5 0.3 32.3 16.6 85.8%
54 Syracuse ACC 20-38 Florida St -22.3 0.5 25.4 22.4 58.2%
12 TCU B12 58-61 Baylor -9.2 1.3 37.7 19.8 85.1%
63 Temple AAC 35-24 Tulsa 17.4 -0.9 30.8 31.0 49.6%
34 Tennessee SEC v FCS 45-10 Chattanooga 25.0 0.0 32.7 23.1 72.0%
36 Texas B12 26-31 Oklahoma -13.9 1.5 28.7 20.4 71.5%
30 Texas A&M SEC 20-35 Mississippi 2.2 -5.4 45.4 30.6 74.4%
114 Texas St SBC   idle 0.0 0.0 18.4 32.7 17.6%
60 Texas Tech B12 34-37 West Virginia -9.3 1.4 32.9 31.0 54.0%
91 Toledo MAC v B12 30-37 Iowa St -18.2 1.7 26.8 36.5 30.3%
108 Troy SBC 41-24 New Mexico St 3.2 2.3 21.6 35.4 20.9%
119 Tulane AAC 24-35 Connecticut 9.1 -6.3 14.8 31.3 11.6%
107 Tulsa AAC 24-35 Temple -17.4 0.9 23.7 38.4 21.5%
67 UAB CUSA 56-21 North Texas -6.6 7.6 38.0 41.0 44.9%
45 UCF AAC v Ind 31-24 BYU -9.9 4.1 32.8 25.6 66.1%
26 UCLA P12 30-42 Oregon -1.7 -2.2 32.5 20.8 76.9%
117 ULL SBC   idle 0.0 0.0 17.2 33.1 14.5%
118 ULM SBC v SEC 14-48 Kentucky -24.6 0.0 15.8 31.0 14.0%
101 UNLV MWC 30-27 Fresno St -7.9 4.5 20.4 30.3 25.5%
18 USC P12 28-26 Arizona 8.4 -1.5 36.9 20.5 82.9%
68 UT San Antonio CUSA 16-13 Florida Intl 7.6 -1.0 26.2 28.4 44.7%
29 Utah P12   idle 0.0 0.0 33.7 22.7 74.4%
44 Utah St MWC 34-16 Air Force 3.1 2.5 21.7 15.9 69.8%
83 UTEP CUSA 42-35 Old Dominion 5.8 0.2 29.0 36.8 34.4%
96 Vanderbilt SEC v FCS 21-20 Charleston So 16.0 -3.0 20.0 28.2 28.5%
46 Virginia ACC   idle 0.0 0.0 34.7 27.7 64.7%
42 Virginia Tech ACC   idle 0.0 0.0 31.3 24.0 67.2%
65 W Kentucky CUSA   idle 0.0 0.0 32.3 34.1 46.3%
112 W Michigan MAC 38-42 Ball St -10.4 1.2 20.4 34.2 19.9%
103 Wake Forest ACC         17.0 25.9 24.3%
31 Washington P12 31-7 California 7.3 2.2 28.3 19.1 74.3%
80 Washington St P12 17-34 Stanford -14.5 -0.3 25.0 29.0 40.1%
39 West Virginia B12 37-34 Texas Tech 9.3 -1.3 40.3 29.8 69.3%
20 Wisconsin B10 38-28 Illinois 24.6 -1.8 32.6 18.7 81.6%
104 Wyoming MWC 28-38 Hawaii -15.4 2.2 26.9 41.7 23.5%


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