Nolte: Elizabeth Warren Overtakes Joe Biden for National Lead

Democratic presidential candidates Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., left, and former Vice President Joe Biden talk during a break Thursday, Sept. 12, 2019, in a Democratic presidential primary debate hosted by ABC at Texas Southern University in Houston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
AP Photo/David J. Phillip

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has overtaken Joe Biden and zoomed into first place nationally, according to polling from the far-left Quinnipiac.

Since polling of the 2020 Democrat primary began, and since he announced his candidacy, former Vice President Joe Biden had held a stubbornly wide lead against all comers.

That lead is now gone.

Thanks to a 15 point swing, Quinnipiac now has Warren leading Biden 27 to 25 percent. That is an eight point jump since August for Warren and a seven point collapse for Biden.

The only other contender who’s close is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VA), with 16 points.

Still chugging along in single digits, despite more  positive news coverage than anyone not named Barry Obama, is South Bend, IN, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, with just seven percent support.

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) is DOA with just three percent support. She has lost four points, more than half of her support, since August.

The Quinnipiac poll, which surveyed 1,337 registered voters between September 19-23,  does not appear to be an outlier. An Emerson poll conducted between September 19-23 of 462 Democrat primary voters, showed Biden with 25 percent national support, while Warren nips at his heels at 23 percent. Sanders is right there with 22 percent, which basically makes the national race a three-way tie.

In those two most recent national polls, Robert Francis “Paddy” O’Rourke, has hit bottom with 1 and 2 percent support, which puts him behind some guy named Andrew Yang.

In the Real Clear Politics poll of national Democrat primary polls, Biden enjoys an eight point lead over his rivals. But that lead was once closer to 20 points. Over the summer, the erosion has been slow and steady.

The same is true in the early primary states.

In the latest two polls out of Iowa, where the first voting begins in that state’s caucus on February 3, Warren leads by eight and two points.

In New Hampshire, which votes on February 11, Warren is ahead by two points in the latest poll.

In Nevada, the third primary state, Biden’s lead has slipped to just four points.

What’s happening in the fourth primary state, South Carolina, which is supposed to be Biden’s firewall, we just don’t know. There hasn’t been any polling there since early August. The older polls show Biden with a 20-plus point lead.

Does all of this mean Warren is the new frontrunner?


What it means is what I’ve been saying all along: summer is over and the race has officially begun.

Over the summer, as rank-and-file Democrats did what all Americans do — fish, swim, camp, run the kids around, vacation, go to the movies, barbecue, picnic — they parked their votes on Biden. But now that the kids are back in school, they are taking a closer look at who’s out there and, finally, they are seeing that Joe Biden is no longer Joe Biden.

While Biden was never anything close to a good campaigner, now that he’s 188 years-old, he is even worse. Already, his eyes has exploded, his teeth have come loose, and he’s lost his train of thought too many times to count. Joe Biden is an old, old man. He’s frail when a president must be virile.

On top of that, unlike Trump, no one has to lie to prove Biden is a racist.

So now that the race has finally begun, people are giving Warren a serious look. In the past, though, whenever she has been under the spotlight, Warren has dissolved into a puddle of neuroses, so we will have to see how she does now. What’s more, she has a huge problem with attracting black voters, which might have something to do with this whiter-than-white woman having spent decades impersonating an American Indian in order to advance her academic and political careers.

During her own five days in the sun over the summer, Kamala Harris completely melted down, but there is still a chance voters might give her a second shot.

Whatever happens, an objective look at the Democrat field tells you why House Democrats are pursuing impeachment of President Trump. This is a very weak and extreme group, and Democrats know that without a recession, Trump will probably win a second term against any one of these extremists. 

Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC. Follow his Facebook Page here.


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