Polls: Donald Trump Leads Biden, Third-Party Candidates in 6 Key Swing States

A collage of former President Donald Trump surrounded by Democrat, independent, and Green
AP: Alex Brandon, Matt Rourke // Getty: Frederick M. Brown, Michael M. Santiago
Nick Gilbertson

Former President Donald Trump has advantages over President Joe Biden in crowded fields in six swing states as the general election gets underway, according to a string of Emerson College polls sponsored by the Hill and Nexstar Media.

The four latest polls from Emerson College and the Hill were out of Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin and published on Wednesday and Thursday. Trump leads Biden in these states in five-way races with third-party candidates. He also has advantages in three of these states in head-to-head matchups when leaners are included and ties with Biden in the other. Those surveys followed polls out of Pennsylvania and Georgia, where Trump led in both hypothetical race formats:

ARIZONA

When leaners are included, Trump leads Biden 52 percent to 48 percent in a two-way race in the Grand Canyon State, according to the Emerson College/the Hill poll, which sampled 1,000 registered voters in Arizona between March 12 and 15. The credibility interval is ± three percentage points.

The margin between Trump and Biden widens when third-party candidates are added to the mix. In this scenario, Trump leads with 46 percent, followed by Biden at 38 percent and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 7 percent. From there, one percent back independent Cornel West, and two percent support Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Seven percent are unsure whom they would back.

NEVADA

In Nevada, Trump has a two-point lead over Biden in a head-to-head matchup with leaners included, falling within the ± three percent credibility interval. He takes 51 percent of support to Biden’s 49 percent among the 1,000 registered voters samples from March 12-15:

Trump’s lead grows to five points in the five-way contest. Of the respondents, 41 percent would vote for Trump, 36 percent would back Biden, while 9 percent are Kennedy supporters. West takes 2 percent of support, Stein garners 1 percent, and 11 percent are undecided in this scenario. KLAS-TV sponsored this poll along with the Hill.

MICHIGAN

Trump and Biden tie in the Wolverine State at 50 percent in a two-man race with undecided leaners accounted for, according to the Emerson College/the Hill poll of 1,000 registered Michigan voters published Thursday. Without rounding, Trump leads 50.3 percent to Biden’s 49.7 percent:

The 45th president takes a two-point advantage in a crowded field, which falls just within the ± three percent credibility interval for the poll. Trump takes 43 percent of the response to Biden’s 41 percent. Kennedy follows with five percent in third place, while Stein and West each garner one percent. One in ten voters are unsure of whom they would back.

The poll was conducted March 14-18.

WISCONSIN

In the neighboring Rust Belt state of Wisconsin, Trump has a four-point edge over Biden with no one else in the field, at 52 percent to 48 percent, when leaners are included. The poll, published Thursday, was conducted March 14-18 among 1,000 registered voters and carries the three percentage point credibility interval.

In a five-way race, Trump’s lead narrows slightly to three points, as 43 percent of respondents back him, and 40 percent prefer Biden. Kennedy garners six percent support, while West and Stein each have one percent. One in ten voters in the Badger State is undecided.

PENNSYLVANIA

According to the Emerson College/the Hill poll published on March 14, the former president has a 52 percent to 48 percent advantage against Biden in a head-to-head matchup in Pennsylvania. The poll was conducted March 10-13 among 1,000 registered voters and has a ± three percent credibility interval:

The margin between Trump and Biden remains at four percent in a larger field. Trump leads the pack with 44 percent to Biden’s 40 percent. Five percent support Kennedy. West and Stein tie at one percent, and eight percent are unsure whom they would vote for.

GEORGIA

Finally, the Georgia Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll of 1,000 registered voters, released on March 13, showed Trump ahead of Biden at 52 percent to 48 percent with undecided leaners included:

As the field expands, so does the 45th president’s lead. He earns 44 percent of the response, giving him a 7-point edge over Biden, who draws 37 percent. Five percent back Kennedy, and West and Stein round out the field with two percent and one percent, respectively.

The poll was conducted March 5-7, and the credibility interval registered at ± three percent.

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