Emerson Poll: Donald Trump Leads Joe Biden in All 7 Swing States, Narrowing Biden’s Path to 270

Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Win McNamee, Shawn Thew/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump holds the lead in all seven swing states over President Joe Biden, a Tuesday Emerson/Hill poll found, further narrowing Biden’s electoral college path to 270.

Previous swing state polling showed Trump leading Biden in six of the seven battleground states, with only Michigan leaning toward Biden. Tuesday’s Emerson poll showed Trump taking a one-point lead in the state.

Seven states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — will decide the president, longtime Democrat adviser Doug Sosnik wrote in the New York Times. If Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Biden’s chances of obtaining 270 electoral votes become narrower.

The Emerson poll results included third-party candidates, such as leftist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.:

  1. WISCONSIN: Trump 45 percent (+5), Biden 40 percent, RFK Jr. 6 percent, Other 1 percent
  2. PENNSYLVANIA: Trump 45 percent (+4), Biden 41 percent, RFK Jr. 6 percent, Other 2 percent 
  3. NORTH CAROLINA: Trump 46 percent (+9), Biden 37 percent, RFK Jr. 6 percent, Other 2 percent 
  4. NEVADA: Trump 42 percent (+5), Biden 37 percent, RFK Jr. 8 percent, Other 2 percent
  5. MICHIGAN: Trump 43 percent (+1),  Biden 42 percent, RFK Jr. 5 percent, Other 2 percent
  6. GEORGIA: Trump 45 percent (+6), Biden 39 percent, RFK Jr. 5 percent, Other 3 percent
  7. ARIZONA: Trump 44 percent (+4), Biden 40 percent, RFK Jr. 9 percent, Other 2 percent

“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and the Hill started tracking them last November,” wrote Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling. “The share of undecided voters has reduced, and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”

In recent days, Trump upended Biden’s national polling gains by dominating Biden in swing states. Several national polls showed Biden cutting into Trump’s national polling lead after Trump’s criminal trial began.

“I think there’s this idea that the legal troubles that Trump is facing have somehow helped him, but that’s not something that I’ve necessarily seen in the recent data,” CNN’s senior data reporter Harry Enten said on April 23.

A Bloomberg swing state tracking poll appears to be the first survey to burst the media’s narrative. It found on Wednesday that Trump maintains an average six-point lead over Biden.

“They took me off the campaign trail,” Trump said Tuesday outside a Manhattan courthouse. “But the good news is my poll numbers are the highest they’ve ever been. So at least we’re getting the word out, and everybody knows this trial is a scam. It’s a scam.”

The Emerson poll sampled 1,000 registered voters from April 25-29, 2024, with a ± three percent margin of error.

Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.


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