Study: Biden Tax Hikes Will Cost 1 Million Jobs in First Two Years

President Joe Biden signs a series of executive orders on health care, in the Oval Office
AP Photo/Evan Vucci

President Biden’s tax hike plan would cost the American economy one million lost jobs in the first two years, according to a study from the National Association of Manufacturers.

The study, released Thursday, details the long and short-term damage to the economy inflicted by Biden’s tax hikes and repeals of Trump’s pro-manufacturing policies.

NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons summarized the studies findings:

“After decades of advocating for a tax system that provided competitive rates and modern international tax provisions, manufacturers in America kept our promises following the enactment of the 2017 tax reforms: we raised wages and benefits, we hired more American workers, and we invested in our communities. If we undo those reforms, all of that will be put at significant risk. Manufacturing workers will lose out on jobs, growth and raises. We should be building on that progress, not rolling it back. But the conclusion of this study is inescapable—follow through with tax hikes that give other countries a clear advantage and we’ll see far fewer jobs created in America.”

The study, authored by Rice University economists John W. Diamond and George R. Zodrow, calculated the effects of increasing the corporate tax rate to 28%, increasing the top marginal tax rate, repealing the 20% pass-through deduction, eliminating certain expensing provisions, and taxing capital gains as ordinary income for individuals earning $1 million or more.

They found that the U.S. would lose one million jobs in the first two years, GDP would be $117 billion lower by 2023, and ordinary capital, or investments in equipment and structures, would be $80 billion less in 2023.

“There are some who are well-meaning and have suggested that the U.S. corporate tax rate should increase, but not by as much as the 28% proposed. Unfortunately, what that means is that America will still lose jobs and investment, just not quite as much. America just can’t afford that, especially now,” Timmons said.


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