Dozens of Brexiteer Tory MPs have been joined by members of the House of Lords, prominent academics, businessmen, and legal professionals in a public broadside against Chancellor Philip ‘Remainer Phil’ Hammond’s anti-Brexit economic forecasts.
The open letter published by The Telegraph is seen as something of a show of strength by the Brexiteer wing of the Tory Party, which is currently attempting to thwart Remain-voting Prime Minister Theresa May’s Chequers plan to keep the United Kingdom subject to large swathes of the EU’s rules and regulations, and possibly leave the entire country in the bloc’s Customs Union as a so-called ‘backstop’ solution to keeping the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland free of customs infrastructure.
Specifically, the letter signed by 63 Tory MPs takes aim at Treasury chief Philip ‘Remainer Phil’ Hammond’s leaked economic forecasts claiming a ‘No Deal’ Brexit would deliver a 7.7 percent hit to GDP over a period of years, hinting that they are — like the Treasury’s pre-referendum anti-Brexit forecasts turned out to be — based on flawed or manipulated modelling.
Treasury forecast: “A vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000”. What bit of that was right? https://t.co/Ewe2pe1CjQ
— Andrew Neil (@afneil) August 27, 2018
“It is unacceptable that the Government leaks the results of its modelling when it suits but simultaneously hides what lies behind these forecasts from the public,” the letter begins, alluding to the fact that the Treasury has not made it clear how it has arrived at its highly negative predictions.
“The Cross-Whitehall Brexit Analysis leaked to the news website Buzzfeed early this year and subsequently ‘published’ in the form of 24 PowerPoint slides, forecasts a 7.7 percent hit to GDP under a World Trade Deal under WTO rules and a 4.8 percent contraction under Canada Plus… independent private sector forecasts and those of Whitehall are wildly far apart, many of which forecast a positive impact on GDP,” the signatories point out.
They suggest that Hammond’s own words suggest the disparities are based on difference in calculating “the benefits accruing from [new] free trade agreements and the impact of any possible new non-tariff barriers [between Britain and the EU”.
They then go on to say that the Treasury’s analysis appears to be predicated on the EU behaving “illegally and in defiance of WTO rules that are backed by the international legal order”, and express concern that the department is indulging in “policy-based evidence-making” — i.e. shaping their research to support a desired political outcome, rather than providing legitimate research.
‘Fire Hammond for Trying to Sabotage Brexit,’ Demands Senior Tory
https://t.co/Iu5XPd83SJ— Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) October 13, 2017
The letter adds that “the general public is battered and bewildered” by the constant stream of conflicting accounts of the consequences of Brexit, demanding that Hammond “publish in full detail the cross-Whitehall Brexit analysis and the underlying models and assumptions so that experts from all sides can study its methodology, assumptions, and conclusions.”
Hammond is widely seen as being the major force behind efforts to either thwart Brexit or ensure that it is delivered ‘in name only’, with the country remaining subject to most EU obligations and regaining only very limited powers over its regulatory regime, trade policy, fishing waters, and so on.
At least one Cabinet colleague has gone so far as to say the Chancellor is trying to “frustrate” and “f*ck up” Brexit on purpose.
*
List of open letter signatories in full
Sir David Amess MP
Richard Bacon MP
Steve Baker MP
Bob Blackman MP
Crispin Blunt MP
Peter Bone MP
Ben Bradley MP
Andrew Bridgen MP
Conor Burns MP
Sir William Cash MP
Sir Christopher Chope MP
Simon Clarke MP
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown MP
Robert Courts MP
Philip Davies MP
Rt Hon David Davis MP
Nadine Dorries MP
Steve Double MP
Richard Drax MP
James Duddridge MP
Rt Hon Iain Duncan Smith MP
Charlie Elphicke MP
Nigel Evans MP
Rt Hon Mark Francois MP
Marcus Fysh MP
Zac Goldsmith MP
James Gray MP
Philip Hollobone MP
Adam Holloway MP
Sir Bernard Jenkin MP
Andrea Jenkyns MP
Rt Hon David Jones MP
Daniel Kawczynski MP
Stephen Kerr MP
Pauline Latham MP
Sir Edward Leigh MP
Andrew Lewer MP
Rt Hon Dr Julian Lewis MP
Ian Liddell-Granger MP
Julia Lopez MP
Tim Loughton MP
Craig Mackinlay MP
Anne Main MP
Nigel Mills MP
Anne Marie Morris MP
Sheryll Murray MP
Dr Matthew Offord MP
Rt Hon Priti Patel MP
Rt Hon Owen Paterson MP
Rt Hon Sir Mike Penning MP
Rt Hon John Redwood MP
Jacob Rees-Mogg MP
Laurence Robertson MP
Andrew Rosindell MP
Lee Rowley MP
Henry Smith MP
Bob Stewart MP
Rt Hon Sir Desmond Swayne MP
Derek Thomas MP
Ross Thomson MP
Rt Hon Theresa Villiers MP
Rt Hon John Whittingdale MP
Bill Wiggin MP
William Wragg MP
The Rt Hon The Lord Flight
The Rt Hon The Lord Lilley
The Rt Hon The Viscount Ridley
Lord Vinson of Roddam Dene
Rt Hon David Heathcoat-Amory, former MP
Professor Vudayagi Balasubramanyam, Professor of Development Economics – Lancaster University
Professor David Blake, Professor of Economics and Director of the Pensions Institute, Cass Business School
Roger Bootle, Chairman of Capital Economics
Michael Burrage, Director of Cimigo, former lecturer at the London School of Economics
Professor Tim Congdon CBE, Chairman, Institute of International Monetary Research – University of Buckingham
Professor Kevin Dowd, Professor of Finance and Economics – Durham University Business School
Charles Dumas, Chief Economist, TS Lombard
John Greenwood, Chief Economist – Invesco
Dr Graham Gudgin, University of Cambridge
Dr Andrea Hossó, Macroeconomist, public policy analyst, and former trade negotiator
Ruth Lea CBE, Economic Adviser – Arbuthnot Banking Group
Professor Graeme Leach, CEO & Chief Economist – Macronomics
Neil MacKinnon, Global Macro-Strategist – VTB Capital
Douglas MacWilliams, Deputy Chairman – CEBR
Professor Kent Matthews, Professor of Banking and Finance – Cardiff University
Edgar Miller, Convener – Economists for Free Trade
Professor Patrick Minford, Chair – Economists for Free Trade and Professor of Economics – Cardiff University
Professor David Paton, Chair of Industrial Economics – Nottingham University Business School
Dr John Whittaker, Senior Teaching Fellow – Lancaster University
Amanda Vigar, Managing Director – V&A Vigar Group
Arabella Arkwright, Partner – Hatton Country World
Johnnie Arkwright, Director – Hatton Ltd
Tom Bohills, co-founder – Alliance for British Entrepreneurs
Simon Boyd, Managing Director – Reidsteel
Sir John Craven, Former Member of Board of Managing Directors of Deutsche Bank AG
Judith Donavan CBE, Yorkshire Businesswoman
John Fifield, Chairman – Fifield Glyn Ltd
Lance Forman, Owner – H Forman & Son
Sir Rocco Forte, Chairman – Rocco Forte Hotels
Ed Harden, co-founder – Alliance for British Entrepreneurs
Ian Herbert, Chief Executive Officer – Vistair
Daniel Hodson, Chairman of The City for Britain
Mr John Longworth, Chairman – Leave Means Leave, entrepreneur and former Director-General of the British Chambers of Commerce
Tim Martin, Chairman – JD Wetherspoons
John Mills, Chairman – JML
Terence Mordaunt, Chairman – The Bristol Port Company
Jon Moynihan, Chairman – Ipex Capital
Christopher Nieper, Managing Director – David Nieper Lt, Chair – David Nieper Education Trust
Sir David Ord, Managing Director – The Bristol Port Company
Emma Pullen, Managing Director – British Hovercraft Company
Richard Tice, CEO – Quidnet Capital LLP
Professor David Collins, Professor of International Economic Law, City, University of London
Martin Howe QC, Barrister, Chair – Lawyers for Britain
Clive D. Thorne FCIArb, Solicitor and Arbitrator, Board member – Lawyers for Britain
COMMENTS
Please let us know if you're having issues with commenting.