Final Poll Before Election Day Has Brexit Party Lead on 37 Per Cent, Conservatives Collapse to 7 Per Cent

Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage (C) holds up a placard at the end of a European Parliament election campaign rally at Olympia London, west London on May 21, 2019. (Photo by Tolga AKMEN / AFP) (Photo credit should read TOLGA AKMEN/AFP/Getty Images)
TOLGA AKMEN/AFP/Getty
JOE MARKHAM

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party has dramatically increased its lead in the polls with one day left before the European elections, a survey shows.

According to the latest YouGov survey, the Brexit Party is now polling at 37 per cent, with its closest rival, the Liberal Democrats, on 19 per cent.

In stark contrast, the two establishment parties, Labour and the Conservatives, have fallen to historic lows with Labour polling at 13 per cent and the Tories at just seven per cent.

Perhaps the most damning statistic for the Conservative Party is the breakdown of voters who voted for the Conservative Party in the 2017 General Election and who they intend to vote for in the European elections tomorrow.

A staggering 65 per cent of former Conservative voters say they will now back the Brexit Party in the EU elections. Only 16 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives two years ago intend to do so again.

This represents a total collapse of the Conservative vote, perhaps unsurprisingly given Prime Minister Theresa May’s handling of the Brexit negotiations, with her unpopular withdrawal bill rejected by Parliament on three occasions, so far.

The prime minister then entered negotiations with Labour and Jeremy Corbyn which drew further condemnation from her party as Labour wanted to remove several of Theresa May’s ‘red lines’, including remaining in a customs union with the EU.

The final blow came yesterday when Mrs May offered the possibility of a second referendum if her deal is passed by the House of Commons at the fourth time of asking in early June.

The latest poll numbers will increase pressure on Mrs May to stand down and announce a leadership contest in hopes that a new figure might be able to steady the ship, deliver Brexit, and win back voters.

The figures are not much better for Labour, with only 31 per cent of past Labour voters planning to support the party on Thursday. Meanwhile, a combined 44 per cent of Labour voters have switched to either the Green Party or the Liberal Democrats, with 13 per cent having switched to the Brexit Party.

This means that Nigel Farage’s pledge that he would target Labour supporters, as well as disillusioned Conservative voters, appears to have paid off. The Brexit Party, so far, appears to be successfully taking votes away from the two major parties primarily.

Other beneficiaries have been the Greens and the Lib Dems, both of which openly back remaining in the EU, with the Lib Dems even running under the slogan ‘Bollocks to Brexit’. It appears that Brexit is the key dividing issue in the country and that parties with a strong view either way are set to see their vote share increase at the polls tomorrow.

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