Conservatives Could Win 96-Seat Majority, Labour Losing Working Class to Brexit Party

BIRMINGHAM, - NOVEMBER 06: Prime Minister Boris Johnson talks onstage at the launch of the Conservative Party's General Election campaign at the National Exhibition Centre on November 6, 2019 in Birmingham, United Kingdom. Boris Johnson visited HM The Queen earlier today to officially dissolve Parliament before heading to the West …
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The Conservative Party could win a 96-seat majority in the House of Commons in December 12th’s general election, according to a polling prediction by Electoral Calculus.

Poll analysis conducted by Electoral Calculus and reported by The Telegraph predicts that the Tories could win 373 seats, with Labour just 182, and the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats 25.

The poll of polls suggests that Prime Minister Boris Johnson could obtain this majority with an even smaller vote share than his predecessor Theresa May did in 2017 — which resulted in a hung parliament — because the Remainer votes will be more divided amongst the anti-Brexit parties.

The separate regional analysis found that Labour is ahead of the Conservatives in just two English regions — London and the North East — while a YouGov poll reported in The Sun suggests that Jeremy Corbyn could lead the party to its worst election result in Scotland and Wales for 100 years.

Research by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) has found that Corbyn’s Labour Party — traditionally associated with the working class — fails to connect with the demographic earning less than £17,000 per year.

Support from that group has fallen 10 per cent since April, with a CSJ poll finding just 36 per cent back Labour while almost one in five, 18 per cent, said they would vote for Farage’s Brexit Party, equalling some 1.4 million voters.

“We’re serving up evidence that low-income Britons make up a big voting bloc in our swing seats,” Chief Executive of the CSJ Andy Cook said. The report revealed that this demographic lives in the 100 most marginal constituencies in the country and represent one in seven voters in those seats.

“The Labour Party can only muster support from just over a third of the poorest voters, and they see Labour as the most out of touch of the lot. The evidence shows a major swing from Labour’s target voters to the Brexit Party, who seem to take slightly smaller bites out of the Conservatives,” Mr Cook continued.

The CSJ chief’s remarks come after Mr Farage has faced weeks of calls from Brexiteers to stand down his candidates or risk taking seats from the Tories and handing the government to Labour.

The Brexit Party leader has maintained that he is a more significant threat to Labour in its heartlands of Wales, the North East, and Midlands — where the Tories are less likely to penetrate — after Mr Corbyn betrayed Labour Leavers by backing a second referendum and Remain.


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