‘Reasonable Worst Case Scenario’: Millions of UK Homes Face Winter Blackouts as Russia Turns Gas Taps Off

INVERGORDON, SCOTLAND - SEPTEMBER 08: An oil rig is seen towering over a field of hay bale
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Oliver JJ Lane

A shortage of gas this winter could leave six million homes in the UK without power, a ‘reasonable worst case scenario’ foreseen by the UK government has predicted. To make up the shortfall, the government has asked coal power stations it ordered to close down to remain open.

Six million homes could see their power ‘rationed’ at peak times in blackouts lasting a month in the depth of winter if Russia — a major exporter of power to Europe, even now after its belligerence in Ukraine and seemingly hollow rhetoric from Brussels — continues to constrict or even end supply to more European countries, causing a serious energy shortage.

While the United Kingdom does not generally import energy from Russia, many of its near-neighbours like Germany are heavily reliant on Russian power and if that source went dry, the scramble for alternative sources which Britain already relies on by those countries could see some in the UK going short.

In this scenario, Britain would struggle to import energy from anywhere, as other normal exporters would face their own emergencies and close off their exports. With gas-burning power stations forced to close in the UK, electricity shortages would follow.

This prediction comes in the so-called reasonable worst-case scenario generated by government departments and revealed by The Times of London, which prognosticates there could be “widespread” gas shortages seeing millions of homes left without power. The report notes the blackouts would likely take the form of rolling or temporary cuts to power in the morning and evening times of peak demand and would impact six million homes.

In an even worse scenario reported as having been considered by the government by The Daily Telegraph, if Russia cut completely its gas exports to Europe the blackout period in the UK could last for three months.

These would not merely be an inconvenience: the warning reportedly notes the impact this would have on the economy, with energy prices again soaring and possibly pushing the country further towards recession.

While Britain’s ability to prepare for this foreseeable event is seriously hamstrung by decades of dire mismanagement of the nation’s energy infrastructure — including forcing power plants to close to reach fashionable green targets and closing down vast gas storage facilities, removing the ability to build up reserves in good times — the government is at least taking some basic steps.

As The Times and others report, the Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has already written to the owners of power stations ordered to close by the government from this year to consider not closing down.

The United Kingdom’s final three coal-fired plants, West Burton A and Ratcliffe on Soar in Nottinghamshire and Kilroot in Ulster, are presently due to close between this year and 2024. Britain’s last major coal mines already closed in 2020, making coal an imported energy as well.

As reported earlier this year, the Hinkley Point B nuclear reactor is likely to be given a life extension as well, to reduce Britain’s dependence on imported energy.

The UK government has said it will build eight new nuclear power plants in the coming years but these are major long-term projects with no hope of helping address the present situation.

What will actually happen in the coming months is unclear, with a flurry of contradictory signals coming from Europe, which condemns the Russian war machine yet pays for it, handing over a billion euros a day in the Spring for gas imports.

While Europe talks big, saying it refuses to stop paying for Russian gas in dollars and to switch to roubles as ordered by Moscow, half of Russia’s European customers have indeed opened rouble accounts.

While the UK government’s predictions of a major gas shortage leading not just to soaring prices — as already exist — but full-on blackouts due to power stations having to be shut down are based on Russia cutting off gas to Europe, Moscow has already ended supply to some European nations. Poland and Bulgaria, which both border Ukraine and have been supportive of Kyiv in the face of Russian aggression had their gas supply turned down and then off in April.

In May, Russia shut down its exports of both electricity and natural gas to Finland, which shares a long land border with the Russian Federation.

European Union nations are, like the United Kingdom, making plans to prepare for a potential loss of energy. While the British warnings to its own people may seem dire, perhaps one of the hardest-hit nations in Europe were Russia to cut off gas supplies would be Germany, which is heavily dependent on Russian imports for generating electricity and servicing its considerable industrial sector.

Germany is preparing to ration gas, with its energy regulator saying earlier this month “it could be necessary … to cut supply of gas to some users to zero.”

As previously reported, an energy crunch could collapse the German economy, handing Moscow considerable leverage over Berlin — a reality that erstwhile U.S. President Donald Trump once warned of, but was mocked for.

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