A poll published on Thursday found that slightly over half of Brazilians, 51 percent, believe that socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva does not deserve to win a fourth term in office in the October presidential election.
The poll, published by the firm Paraná Pesquisas, indicates that the country is deeply divided politically, as 45.3 percent said they did believe Lula deserved another term, and only 3.7 percent responded that they either did not know or did not have an opinion.
The results of that survey follow the publication of several polls showing a decline in support for Lula and the first poll, published this week, showing his top conservative rival, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, taking the lead in a runoff election. The first round of voting, featuring all political candidates, is scheduled for October, but in Brazil the winner must either win by over 50 percent support or face the runner-up in a second-round runoff.
Regarding how respondents would vote in the election, Lula attracted 39.8 percent support in the Paraná poll, enough to win a first round of voting but not enough to prevent a runoff election. Flavio Bolsonaro attracted 33.1 percent support in that poll, and “no one/blank/null” came in third place with 6.8 percent. This result would be in an election without conservative Sao Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, who has publicly stated he would support Flavio Bolsonaro.
In a runoff, the poll found that Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro would end up in a technical tie, within the margin of error. The poll found 44.8 percent support for Lula, 42.2 percent for Flavio Bolsonaro, and 13 percent answering either “no one” or “don’t know” – a large enough bloc to decide the election.
Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who Lula narrowly defeated in 2022 in a race that prompted nationwide protests, and one notorious riot, over the censorship of Lula’s criminal record and Lula personally disparaging Bolsonaro as a “cannibal” and “pedophile,” among other insults. Given that Lula had been convicted of corruption during his first two terms in office on multiple appeals, conservatives also protested that he should not legally have been allowed to run for office. The nation’s Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF), its top court, lifted Lula’s conviction on a technicality and allowed him to run.
Jair Bolsonaro was arrested shortly upon his return to Brazil – following a brief stay in the United States in early 2023 – and sentenced to 27 years in prison by the STF in September on frivolous charges of having attempted to poison Lula and stage a coup d’etat. The court also ruled that Bolsonaro, 70, will not be allowed to run for public office again until he is 105 years old.
Flavio Bolsonaro announced his intention to run for president in December, stating that he received his father’s blessing during a prison visit and had discussed the candidacy with several conservatives who may have considered running for president otherwise, most prominently Sao Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. Bolsonaro’s father would be the clear unifying candidate in the election if he were not both in prison and in poor health, including a cancer diagnosis and multiple surgeries to repair damage from a 2018 assassination attempt. Jair Bolsonaro’s status at the helm of the conservative movement and the belief that he personally chose Flavio as his movement successor appears to have consolidated significant support behind the senator.
“I cannot, and will not, resign myself to watching our country walk through a time of instability, insecurity, and discouragement. I will not stand idly by while I see the hope of families being extinguished and our democracy succumbing,” Senator Bolsonaro wrote in the official confirmation of his candidacy. “Our country is living through difficult days in which many feel abandoned, retirees are robbed by their own government, narco-terrorists dominate cities and exploit workers, state-owned companies have returned to being plundered, new taxes never stop being created or increased, our children have no expectations for the future. No one can take it anymore!”
Another poll published this week, from the firm Futura/Apex, found that Flavio Bolsonaro would defeat Lula in a runoff vote – the first survey to show the younger Bolsonaro leading in any contest against the radical leftist president. Nearly half, about 48 percent, said they would vote for Sen. Bolsonaro over Lula, compared to 42 percent who said they would support the president. While the Futura/Apex poll was the first to show Bolsonaro leading, a poll by another firm, AtlasIntel, published on Wednesday showed Lula’s lead narrowing.
Having united the conservative vote, Bolsonaro’s campaign team and his political party, the Liberal Party, are planning on making the candidate’s case to the host of parties known collectively as “the Center”: minor parties that consolidate to form a formidable, but ideologically fluid, voting bloc in the Brazilian Congress. Valdemar Costa Neto, the president of the Liberal Party, told the Brazilian news agency Jovem Pan that the party is waiting until Brazil’s carnaval season to be over to make a serious push to unite the center against the left.
“Then Flávio will start visiting presidents, candidates, and our people from the right and center. This will be the work that Flávio will do, under the coordination of Senator Rogério Marinho,” he explained.
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