Three Signs Republicans May Hammer Democrats in Midterm Landslide  

WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 04: U.S. Speaker of the House Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) speaks to m
Alex Wong/Getty Images
Wendell Husebø

Republicans will likely retake the House and Senate, according to polling, election experts, and Democrat rhetoric.

First: Experts

Redistricting expert and senior editor of the Cook Political Report, David Wasserman, believes Republicans will have a huge advantage in midterms based on his experience. Cook suggests 19 House seats are toss-up districts for Democrats. Many of these districts are in the Rustbelt, such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. This portion of the nation has been impacted by President Biden’s 40-year-high inflation and fentanyl that has streamed across the southern border. Biden has failed to secure the border from the invasion of illegal migrants.

Cook’s analysis also shows only eight Republicans are in toss-up districts. But with a wider perspective, Cook estimates only 15 Republican districts either lean Republican or are likely Republican holds. In contrast, 27 Democrat-held districts either lean that way or are likely Democrat districts. Democrats must spend precious resources holding 12 more districts than Republicans.

Second: Polling

Polling is also in favor of Republicans. Thursday polling showed Republicans heavily favored by nine points on a generic ballot (48-39 percent). The generic ballot is important because it indicates congressional Republicans have a national advantage over Democrats regardless of the candidate.

Generic polling is especially important in Senate races, where the campaigns are statewide races and garner national attention. Recent polling of individual Senate races shows Republicans doing quite well in swing states. Republicans are leading in Arizona, New Hampshire, Georgia, and Nevada.

Republicans only need to net one seat to reclaim the Senate. While they have more Senate seats to defend than Democrats, Republicans also have the benefit of campaigning against an unpopular president. Biden’s nationwide approval rating in April is 33 percent. Additional polling shows 49.9 percent of voters strongly disapprove of the president, while only 20 percent strongly approve:

Third: Democrat Rhetoric

Democrat rhetoric is another reason Republicans may win in November. The Democrat-allied establishment media, along with Democrats, have begun alerting the Washington, DC, establishment that the political tide is very unfavorable. The Associated Press warned Friday that Biden’s election strategy cannot be to only blame Republicans for the nation’s crises. “Biden’s election-year challenge: Blame GOP for nation’s woes,” the title read.

The article noted Biden’s strategy of blaming Republicans for the crises that have befallen the nation. “I mean this sincerely — name me something the national Republican Party is for,” the article reported of Biden’s recent statement at the Democratic National Committee meeting.

“It’s not my fault; blame the Republicans,” Biden has said in relation to soaring gas prices and 40-year-high inflation.

That is not the only time Biden has laid blame on someone or something else for his failures. “Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has driven up gas prices and food prices all over the world,” Biden claimed in Iowa in April. “So everything is going up. We saw it in today’s inflation data.” Biden’s claim that inflation is only a result of Putin’s actions is incorrect. Inflation was climbing well before Putin invaded Ukraine.

The economy is unlikely to correct before the midterms. Economists predict the nation has a 35 percent chance of falling into a recession between 2022 and 2023. Americans expect the nation will not economically recover before the midterms.

Follow Wendell Husebø on Twitter and Gettr @WendellHusebø. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality.

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